Iran prepares new blow to global oil: Houthi ordered to be ready to block Red Sea

Iran has called on the Yemeni Houthi movement to prepare to block shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea if the United States strikes Iranian energy infrastructure. This was reported on Thursday by Reuters, citing three sources who described it as a serious new threat to global energy supplies.

According to two high-ranking Iranian sources and one regional interlocutor familiar with the situation, the leadership of the Islamic Republic discussed this idea before sending a corresponding signal to their Houthi allies. The sources noted that the group recently received this request from Tehran, which had not been previously reported.

The interlocutors did not specify how the message was conveyed or whether it occurred after US President Donald Trump‘s threat to attack Iranian energy infrastructure on Tuesday. The Iranian Foreign Ministry and a Houthi representative did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Houthi completed preparations

A source close to the Houthis reported that the group has completed preparations for attacks on shipping, deploying missiles and drones near the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a strategic passage to the Red Sea — in the highlands of Yemen, from where access to the Hodeidah area and the Gulf of Aden is available. They are now only waiting for the order to commence operations.

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Any threat to shipping through the Bab al-Mandab could sharply exacerbate the global energy crisis, which has already intensified following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis also begin to attack ships or ports in the Red Sea, it would disrupt the operation of two key oil export routes from the Middle East, opening a new front in both the global energy crisis and the conflict between Iran and the United States.

Representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Yemen will decide when to initiate the blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to a source close to the Houthis.

Escalation of tension

Amid rising tensions, the Houthis launched rockets at Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of conducting an airstrike on an airport under their control. This escalation follows four years of truce between Riyadh and the group.

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, stated that the new outbreak of hostilities comes at a particularly inopportune time. “If hostilities intensify and spread to export infrastructure and shipping in the Red Sea, this will threaten the only major alternative route for oil exports from the region,” he said.

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Two regional sources close to Riyadh reported that Saudi authorities are taking the threats from Iran and the Houthis very seriously and are aware of the close coordination between them regarding the situation in the Red Sea.

The current conflict began on February 28, when Israel and the United States struck Iran. In response, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz — a route through which about one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies passed before the war. After the collapse of a fragile June truce between Tehran and Washington, fears of a large-scale war intensified, disrupting energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since then, a significant portion of oil from Persian Gulf countries has begun to be transported to the Red Sea via the Saudi pipeline. Currently, this route accounts for about 7% of the world’s energy supplies. During the war in Gaza, Houthi attacks have already forced major shipping companies to redirect vessels on a longer and more costly route around Africa.

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Additionally, Saudi Arabia now exports about 70% of its energy products through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, so any attacks on this route could severely impact the global oil market.

One regional source reported that the Iranian leadership aims to increase the cost of a potential conflict for the United States by creating a threat to shipping in the Red Sea and the export of Saudi oil. According to the source, this strategy underpins Tehran’s current approach.

The source also noted that blocking the strait is technically straightforward. “Anyone with a rifle can disrupt shipping. You don’t need sophisticated missiles to stop ships,” he said.

Iran views the Houthis as part of its regional “Axis of Resistance,” which also includes the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite groups. However, the Houthis have not yet formally entered the war. The United States accuses Iran of supplying weapons, financing, and training to the Houthis through Hezbollah, while Tehran denies these allegations.