A prominent Chinese maritime analyst has raised concerns about Japan’s increasing military presence in the South China Sea, suggesting it could pose a greater threat to the region than the United States.
This warning was issued by Wu Shicun, the founding president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, during a roundtable discussion in Hong Kong focused on regional security. The event was co-hosted by the institute, the Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, and the Asian Academy of International Law. Wu Shicun emphasized that “unilateral actions in disputed waters are increasingly becoming common practice.”
China’s apprehensions have been heightened by Japan’s unprecedented full-scale participation in Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises conducted by the United States and the Philippines. This year’s exercises featured the deployment of over 1,400 Japanese military personnel, along with three large warships and transport aircraft. For the first time outside its territory, Japanese forces utilized the Type 88 coastal missile system, firing live missiles at a decommissioned Philippine Navy vessel.
“This is the first time Japan has demonstrated its military power since the end of World War II,” said Wu Shicun. He added that the presence of Japanese armed forces in the South China Sea “is inherently destructive and creates risks that could ultimately surpass even the risks posed by the actions of the United States.”
Wu Shicun also remarked: “As long as Manila and its partners do not abandon the use of the tribunal’s ruling for their own interests, peace and stability in the South China Sea cannot be guaranteed.” He referred to the 2016 ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague, which invalidated most of China’s claims to historical and economic rights in the South China Sea.
Qi Dahai, Director-General of the Department of Treaty and Law at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reported at the event that Washington is not a party to the dispute but is using various means to “stoke tensions.” “It forms small groups, issues so-called joint statements, sows discord, and fans the flames in the region,” said Qi.
These comments come amid rising tensions over the resource-rich South China Sea. Beijing claims sovereignty over nearly all the islands and reefs, as well as rights to the adjacent waters, leading to long-standing maritime disputes with competing claimants, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.
Tensions Surrounding The Hague Tribunal Ruling
Wu Shicun spoke a day after the 10th anniversary of the Hague tribunal ruling. The arbitration case, initiated by Manila, sparked a new war of words on Sunday. Fourteen countries, including the United States and the Philippines, issued a statement on the anniversary, asserting that the tribunal’s decision is “legally binding and final,” and criticized Beijing for refusing to recognize or comply with it.
The dispute intensified after a separate Japanese statement noted that China’s non-compliance “contradicts the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes.” In response, Beijing summoned a high-ranking official from the Japanese embassy to lodge an official protest. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated: “Japan is not a party to the South China Sea dispute and has no right to point fingers at China regarding its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”
The ministry noted that some recent actions by Japan—such as exporting weapons and equipment to the Philippines, deploying its troops abroad, and launching offensive missiles—“far exceed the scope of self-defense.” Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution stipulates that its armed forces can only be used for defensive purposes. Beijing dismissed the Hague tribunal ruling as “invalid,” claiming it was politically motivated and violated the fundamental principle of state consent, as China had never agreed to arbitration. Chinese officials increasingly view this ruling as a tool used by the Philippines and other countries to portray China as a threat to regional stability.
Strategic Partnership in the Region
Both Japan and the Philippines are key allies of the United States. Washington has nine bases in the Southeast Asian country, regularly conducts joint naval exercises to enhance interoperability, and has established an operational group on Palawan Island to provide intelligence and technical training to Philippine forces.
Meanwhile, Japan has emerged as a key strategic partner for the Philippines. It has supplied the country with coastal radar installations and patrol aircraft, and the two nations are currently negotiating a pact on intelligence sharing and the transfer of five Abukuma-class escort destroyers.
