A wave of Ukrainian attacks has cut oil refining volumes in Russia to their lowest level in over 21 years, exacerbating domestic fuel shortages and increasing pressure on the global market.
The average rate of crude oil refining this month stands at 3.91 million barrels per day, the lowest since March 2005, according to data from EA Analytics. This figure is more than 1.4 million barrels per day lower than last year’s annual average.
The decline in production has prompted a ban on most diesel fuel exports until the end of July, in addition to existing restrictions on gasoline and aviation fuel supplies. The loss of diesel from a key global supplier has driven prices to multi-year highs, while the market was already strained due to supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Damage from Attacks and Expert Assessments
Russia has classified official statistics on oil refinery operations, making it difficult to independently assess industry losses. The Ministry of Energy did not respond to a request for comment.
EA Analytics, a division of the consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd., estimates refining volumes by monitoring the entire crude oil supply chain, from satellite tracking of fields and storage facilities to real-time cargo flows.
In the past 100 days, Ukrainian forces have conducted approximately 50 attacks on Russian fuel production facilities, impacting at least 24 out of 34 major oil refineries, most of which are affiliated with the country’s major oil companies. This data comes from Bloomberg, based on public statements from both countries.
“The destructive wave of Ukrainian attacks” has affected more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity since early May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Friday. The Paris-based agency estimates that Russian plants refined 3.8 million barrels per day in June, 1.6 million barrels per day less than a year earlier.
Kyiv has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in an effort to compel the Kremlin to negotiate. This month, Ukrainian drones capable of traveling more than 1,500 miles from the Ukrainian border struck Russia’s largest oil refinery in the Omsk region.
Domestic Fuel Shortage and Response
The attack on the facility in Omsk, which primarily serves the domestic market, has further strained supplies for Russian consumers. Many regions across the country—from Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea to the Russian Pacific coast—are experiencing supply disruptions, long lines at gas stations, and a sharp increase in fuel prices.
“There are problems and shortages, so we see queues or sometimes gas stations operating unstably,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told local media last week. Novak, who oversees Russia’s energy sector, holds meetings almost daily regarding the domestic fuel market.
To curb panic buying, some regions have implemented a temporary rationing system based on vehicle license plates. Authorities in the Novosibirsk region have recommended that companies return to remote work to reduce fuel consumption.
Some Russians have also taken matters into their own hands: last month, there were over 17,000 searches on the Russian search engine Yandex for “how to make gasoline,” The Bell reported, citing Yandex Wordstat. This marks the highest figure since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
