A survey conducted by Pracownia United Surveys by IBRiS for Wirtualna Polska from July 10 to 12 among 1,000 respondents revealed that the Civic Coalition (KO) holds 28.6% support in the upcoming Sejm elections. The Law and Justice (PiS) party follows with 23%, while the Confederation of Freedom and Independence ranks third with 15.7%.
Further down the list are: Confederation of the Polish Crown with 10.2%, New Left at 7.5%, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) with 5.2%. The Razem party, which garnered 4% support, and Polska 2050 with 0.6%, would not surpass the threshold to enter the Sejm. The percentage of undecided voters decreased from 7.8% to 5.2%. The newly formed Unia Centrum party was not included in the survey as its launch was announced on Sunday.
Changes in Party Support and Distribution of Mandates
Compared to the survey conducted from June 12-14, both the Civic Coalition and PiS experienced a decline in support of 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, the following parties saw increases: Confederation of Freedom and Independence (up 3.5 p.p.), Confederation of the Polish Crown (up 0.6 p.p.), New Left (up 0.4 p.p.), and PSL (up 0.2 p.p.). The Razem party increased by 0.9 p.p., while Polska 2050 fell by 0.8 p.p.
An analysis of the survey results using the calculator developed by Professor Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University indicated that out of 460 seats in the Sejm, the Civic Coalition would secure 158 mandates, while PiS would obtain 125. The Confederation of Freedom and Independence could expect 83 mandates, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown would receive 51. The Left is projected to gain 34 mandates, and the PSL would have 9.
Coalition Scenarios and Leaders’ Statements
A total of 231 mandates is required to form a government. A coalition between PiS and both Confederation parties would yield 259 mandates, ensuring a majority. In contrast, the current ruling coalition (KO, Left, PSL) would secure 201 mandates, falling 30 short of what is needed to maintain power. The survey suggests that the «October 15 Coalition» has no chance of achieving a majority.
The leader of the Confederation, Krzysztof Bosak, stated in an interview with Radio ZET that his party will compete independently against PiS in the upcoming parliamentary elections, asserting that «there will be no joint victory». He emphasized that the Confederation aims to present itself as an alternative to PiS, PO, PSL, and the Left, criticizing their political styles as fundamentally flawed. The goal is to reduce their representation in parliament and increase the number of new representatives from the Confederation. Earlier, Jarosław Kaczyński also dismissed the possibility of a coalition. However, both parties are seeking the largest possible victory, and final decisions remain uncertain.
Source: Gazeta.pl
