The centrist forces of the European Union may fail to secure a majority in the European Parliament for the first time, according to a new projection by Europe Elects. This forecast reflects the growing influence of right-wing and populist forces.
Three political groups—the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centrist Renew Europe, and the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D)—which have formed the parliamentary majority since its inception, may for the first time fail to secure enough seats to form it. The seat distribution projection was published on Wednesday by the electoral data platform Europe Elects. It is based on voter intentions in each EU member state and models the distribution of seats according to the electoral laws of each country.
Parliamentary changes
The 2024 European Parliament elections have already shown a significant shift in the political center of gravity to the right: right-wing and center-right forces have gained nearly 60 additional seats, largely due to far-right, conservative, and national-populist parties. According to Europe Elects’ forecasts, the S&D group will suffer the greatest losses, losing 18 seats, followed by the EPP with a loss of 15 seats and Renew Europe, which will lose 9. The Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) group, which often supported the parliamentary majority in the current term, will also shrink by 14 seats.
Meanwhile, the far-right group Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), which includes Alternative for Germany, currently projected as Germany’s leading party, will gain 19 additional seats. The far-left group The Left is also expected to gain 19 seats, largely due to left-wing parties in France and Germany. This indicates that the political trend favors not only the right but also anti-system forces in general. At the same time, most of the projected gains will go to the right side of the chamber. The Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, is expected to gain 12 seats, largely due to the Spanish Vox and the Austrian Freedom Party. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), dominated by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, will remain largely stable, gaining another three seats.
Group positions
The hierarchy of political groups by size will largely remain: the EPP will stay first, followed by the S&D, PfE, ECR, and Renew Europe. However, the gap between the two main centrist forces and the largest right-wing group will narrow sharply, and the position of Renew Europe will increasingly be challenged by the The Left group. The Greens/EFA group will fall below The Left and the far-right ESN, becoming the smallest political force in the parliament. At the same time, their votes will become more important than ever, as centrists will have to rely even more on the Greens to form a majority.
One of the most significant changes will occur within the EPP itself, where the People’s Party of Spain and the Civic Platform of Poland will become the largest national delegations, ending the decade-long dominance of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany in the group. Meanwhile, the EPP is likely to further strengthen its position, retaining the ability to form an alternative majority with right-wing parties. This is already a significant lever of influence for the center-right group in daily parliamentary negotiations. The positions of the ECR may also strengthen, as it has already gained significant institutional roles and legislative influence in the current term, potentially bringing it closer to the political mainstream in the next.
Political trends
According to Europe Elects director Tobias Gerhard Schminke, the latest projection confirms the political trends that have defined the EU’s electoral landscape in recent years. “The first, which is often underestimated, is that we are seeing a fragmentation of the political system. Thus, the EPP now has about 21% support in Europe. Therefore, forming a majority will require the union of many political families,” said Gerhard Schminke to Euronews. He also pointed to the decline in support for the political center, which is part of a broader decline in the consensus on liberal democracy, human rights, and cooperation between European states within the EU.
Another trend he noted is that within the radical right camp, parties such as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Le Pen’s National Rally have reached a plateau, while most of the growth is coming from more extreme forces united under the ESN banner. The next European Parliament elections are scheduled for June 2029, and three years is a long time in politics. Parliamentary groups can also change before or after the elections, which inevitably affects the distribution of power in the chamber. However, if these trends continue until the next elections, they will further test the EU’s unwritten “cordon sanitaire”—an agreement among the main parties to keep extremist forces out of power. Gerhard Schminke noted: “We are still seeing a gradual increase in the radical right camp overall. And we are now at the stage where it is difficult to ignore these parties when it comes to coalition dynamics, whether in the European Parliament or at the national level.”
Source: Euronews
