Former President of France Francois Hollande is actively campaigning to reclaim the presidency. His return comes amid turmoil among left-centrists, who have lost significant voter support and struggle to agree on a candidate.
Many socialists hold Hollande’s unsuccessful presidency responsible for discrediting their party. Despite his low standing as a potential candidate, his personal popularity among the French remains notably higher. According to a poll by the Elabe Institute, Hollande has the support of only about 9% of voters. However, an Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris Match magazine indicates that the 71-year-old socialist is “the most popular politician in the country”: 45% of respondents view him favorably, while another 4% have a very favorable opinion. The only public figure who surpassed Hollande in this ranking was Michel-Edouard Leclerc, owner of the supermarket chain. These results have bolstered Hollande’s confidence that he still has a chance to return to the Elysee Palace. Following this, he convened 160 influential supporters for a meeting at the Senate in Paris, announcing his intention to participate in next year’s presidential elections.
Political Landscape and Chances
At first glance, Francois Hollande‘s victory appears unlikely. With Emmanuel Macron unable to run for a third term, Marine Le Pen, the candidate from the right-wing populist party National Rally, is leading confidently in the polls. Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister from the right-centrists, is in second place, followed by Jean-Luc Melenchon, a veteran of the radical left, in third. Amid unprecedented political uncertainty, Hollande’s supporters believe public opinion can still shift. They present him as “an experienced politician capable of leading the country in these turbulent times.”
Vincent Thibaut, director of research at Elabe, discussed the former president’s prospects with the newspaper Les Échos: “Francois Hollande is gradually rising from the ashes. In a complex world, he positions himself as an experienced leader who has faced crises, such as the 2015 terrorist attacks that claimed 137 lives in France. Moreover, he holds authority on the international stage.” Hollande has extensive experience in election campaigns, which typically begin in the summer. According to the presidential potential barometer, he emerged in July as the left-wing politician with the best indicators in four categories: effectiveness as a president, representation of France and its people, and decision-making ability. He only fell short in the category of having a clear vision for the future, where Raphael Glucksmann and Jean-Luc Melenchon outperformed him. Francois Hollande believes he is the only left-wing politician capable of defeating Melenchon. He does not seek a symbolic role in the elections and will only run if he is confident in his chances of victory.
“Bigamy” and Family Dramas
Francois Hollande is choosing not to follow the example of Segolene Royal by participating in the socialist primaries. Instead, he hopes that the intra-party elections will falter, prompting the left-centrists to turn to him as a “savior” in the fall. Frederic Dabi, head of the public opinion department at Ifop, remarked: “He allows other candidates to come to the fore and take political hits.” Among these candidates is his former partner Segolene Royal, who has not held public office since 2020. The 72-year-old Royal has stated that she is running to prevent Marine Le Pen from becoming the first female president of France. “How could I sit idly by at the prospect of the first woman president being a representative of the ultra-right?” she wrote.
Segolene Royal, who served as a minister in Hollande’s government, accused him of what she termed “bigamy” due to his affair with journalist Valerie Trierweiler in 2007, when she was a presidential candidate and he was the party’s first secretary. “I became a victim of bigamy. What the French people did not see during the 2007 election campaign, what I kept silent about, was that I had to face this, in addition to raising four children,” said Royal, who has several grandchildren with Hollande. She also asserted that the socialist leadership should have at least asked Hollande to step down from his position as first secretary of the party. Bruno Cautres, a researcher at the Cevipof Institute of Political Studies, described Royal’s attempt to return to politics as “bold,” but expressed doubt that she could win the primaries, let alone the presidential elections. Other commentators suggest that her participation in the campaign aims to bolster her public image and potentially hinder Hollande’s return. Hollande and Segolene Royal were in a relationship for 30 years, served in the governments of Francois Mitterrand and Lionel Jospin, and have four children.
