The International Energy Agency has revised its oil production forecasts for Russia for this year and next, citing ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities as a factor that will negatively affect future production levels.
In its monthly report published today, the Agency noted that persistent strikes on oil refineries, storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure have compelled it to lower its estimates of Russian oil supplies by 85,000 barrels per day for the current year and by 150,000 barrels per day for next year.
The International Energy Agency projects that Russia’s average production, as the world’s third-largest oil producer, will be approximately 8.9 million barrels per day in 2026, before declining to 8.8 million barrels per day in 2027. This marks a decrease from the average production of 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the Agency’s estimates.
Pressure on the Energy Sector
The Agency explained that the ongoing attacks on oil refineries, storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure reinforce its forecasts of reduced production in the future. Recent months have seen an escalation in drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries, resulting in disruptions to some refining and supply processes.
Increase in Crude Oil Production and Exports in June
Despite the downward revision in future forecasts, Russian crude oil production in June rose by 120,000 barrels per day compared to May, reaching 8.86 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports also increased to 5.8 million barrels per day in June, an uptick of 620,000 barrels per day from the previous month, driven by higher shipments through Russian ports.
In contrast, exports of oil products fell by 230,000 barrels per day, totaling 1.91 million barrels per day.
The Agency noted that Russia has introduced a ban on diesel fuel exports this week, along with restrictions on gasoline and aviation fuel exports, to bolster supplies in the domestic market following a fuel shortage. Analysts believe that ongoing pressure on energy infrastructure could pose increased challenges for the Russian oil sector, even with the short-term rise in crude oil exports due to diminished refining capacity.
Source: Sky News Arabia
