Eight months before the presidential elections, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is showing significant progress in the polls. The leader of “Unbowed France” (LFI) can now advance to the second round in several scenarios, while left-wing forces remain divided between his candidacy and the alternative represented by Raphaël Glucksmann, among others.
According to the latest poll by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, published on Monday, Mélenchon could advance to the second round in three out of five tested scenarios. In another configuration, where François Hollande ultimately became the candidate, he would instead trail Édouard Philippe by 2 percentage points.
Mélenchon is receiving 16-17% of voting intentions compared to 12% in the previous poll by this institute in April. This noticeable increase has allowed him to catch up with Édouard Philippe, who has long been considered the main contender for second place after Marine Le Pen and the “National Rally.”
Dynamics favorable to Mélenchon
The most favorable scenario for the LFI leader is one where votes among his opponents are significantly scattered. When several candidates compete against each other in the center of the political spectrum, Mélenchon gains additional chances. In a scenario where Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, and Bruno Retailleau (LR) participate, Mélenchon receives 16%, ahead of Philippe with 14% and Glucksmann with 10%.
The political calendar also favors Jean-Luc Mélenchon. On Sunday, before several thousand activists gathered in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère, near Valence in the Drôme department, at the conclusion of the LFI summer universities, he outlined the main points of his campaign. “Victory is possible,” he declared, clearly confirming his presidential ambitions.
For nearly 45 minutes, the leader of “Unbowed France” sought to show that his campaign would not be limited to protest rhetoric. Issues of ecology and economics took center stage in his speech.
After a summer marked by heat waves, fires, and drought, Mélenchon called for the creation of an “ecological state” and called for a “clear and decisive programmatic break.” “Climate change opens an absolutely new era of human civilization,” he said, advocating for a profound transformation of lifestyles, production, and exchange.
The LFI candidate also sharply criticized the results of the ten-year rule of Emmanuel Macron, stating that “his departure is now expected from all sides as a liberation.” He also promised to initiate a vote of no confidence in the government of Sébastien Lecornu if his budget project for 2027 is maintained, considering that it “will aggravate all the ills” of the French economy.
Division of left-wing forces
Mélenchon’s breakthrough comes at a time when left-wing forces not affiliated with LFI are trying to form their own political strategy. Raphaël Glucksmann officially announced his candidacy for the presidential elections on Sunday. The co-president of the Place publique party aims to represent the social-democratic and pro-European left, clearly distinct from LFI.
In particular, he wants to turn the page on “Mélenchonism” and calls on socialists not to renew their alliance with “Unbowed France,” as happened during the creation of Nupes after the dissolution of parliament in June 2024. Currently, Glucksmann has about 10% support.
Among the ecologists, the situation is even more complex. Marine Tondelier wants to maintain dialogue with LFI, while part of the party leadership advocates rapprochement with Glucksmann, the Socialist Party, and Place publique. Ecologist deputy Jérémy Iordanou advocates for the creation of a common structure that would unite these political forces. Meanwhile, Yannick Jadot, who on Monday announced his joining Glucksmann’s camp, considers Mélenchon incompatible with the values of the ecological movement.
This division could have significant consequences. If Mélenchon today benefits from the disunity of his opponents, the left-wing forces face the same problem as in 2022: a large number of candidates could lead to a scattering of votes. The LFI leader himself refuses to see this as an obstacle. On Sunday, he summarized his strategy with the words: “What matters is not the number of candidates, but the number of voters.”
Mélenchon may advance to the second round, but defeat awaits him against Le Pen
However, for LFI, this scenario has a serious drawback. If Mélenchon strengthens his position in the first round, the second round currently remains extremely unfavorable for him.
In the tested scenarios, Marine Le Pen significantly outperforms him. In a direct confrontation, she would receive about 68% of the votes against 32% for Mélenchon. Le Pen also leads all other tested candidates, although the gap in the confrontation with Édouard Philippe is much smaller.
There is still a long time until the first round on April 18, 2027, and the path to it will be fraught with obstacles. By that time, candidacies may change, alliances may form, and the balance of power may shift significantly.
Nevertheless, this poll marks a turning point for the LFI leader. Since the beginning of his campaign in the spring, he has never been so close to advancing to the second round. Now, in several scenarios, he is ahead of or nearly catching up with his main rivals.
Now, Mélenchon must confirm this dynamic. Because advancing to the second round is one thing, but winning the elections and entering the Élysée Palace is quite another.
Source: Euronews
