Spain will overtake France and become the world’s most visited country by 2040, a new study predicts. Overall, the number of tourist trips worldwide is expected to increase to 2.4 billion by 2040.
In 2025, France retained its status as the world’s most visited country, setting a new national record for the number of tourists. The country welcomed 102 million international tourists, who made 743 million overnight stays, according to the French Ministry of Economy. Three-quarters (76%) of foreign tourists came from Europe.
Spain ranked second, receiving 96.8 million foreign tourists — 3.2% more than in 2024, when their number was 94 million. Meanwhile, a new joint study by Deloitte and Google predicts that by 2040, Spain will surpass France in the number of tourists.
Spain to lead global tourism
The Deloitte and Google study analyzes the development of the tourism sector since 1990 and predicts its further dynamics until 2040. According to its data, European countries will receive the largest share (38%) of tourist trips, attracting more than 362 million additional tourist revenues in the period from 2019 to 2040.
Spain is expected to receive the most tourists — their annual number will increase to 110 million in 2040. France is forecast to have 105 million tourists. The USA and China are expected to maintain their positions among the top five most visited countries, while Italy will drop to sixth place and Mexico will rise to fifth. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and the UAE may enter the top 15. The Asia-Pacific region (APR) will take second place in terms of incoming tourist revenues, which are expected to exceed 278 million additional revenues in the period from 2019 to 2040.
Spain’s struggle with overtourism
The increase in the number of tourists will bring Spain significant economic benefits. Revenue from foreign visitors last year increased by 6.8% — to 134.7 billion euros compared to 126 billion euros in 2024, according to the Ministry of Tourism. At the same time, many Spanish tourist destinations are already struggling with overtourism.
Over the past few years, large-scale protests have periodically erupted across Spain, demanding that the authorities regulate the ever-increasing flow of tourists. A number of measures have been introduced to mitigate the situation. In September last year, the government announced the withdrawal of about 53,000 tourist apartments from the Unified Register of Tourist and Seasonal Rentals. They are planned to be transferred to the long-term rental market.
Barcelona announced plans to completely abandon short-term tourist rentals by 2028, returning thousands of properties to the long-term rental market. In 2023, the city reduced the number of daily cruise ship arrivals to the central port from 10 to 7. Malaga, a summer tourist hub that traditionally attracted noisy tourists, launched a campaign to improve visitor behavior. A list of 10 recommended rules appeared on buses, billboards, and social media. Tourists were urged to be quiet, especially at night, not to shout and not to play loud music in residential areas, as well as to use specially designated trash cans and toilets.
On the Balearic Islands, stricter controls on alcohol consumption and the use of boats for parties have been introduced to limit excessively noisy tourist behavior. Despite these measures, the sheer scale of the tourist flow remains a pressing problem for many residents. “We have nothing against individual tourists, but the industry is constantly growing, consuming so many resources that the island cannot cope,” a protester from the Canary Islands told the media last year.
Source: Euronews
