More than 450,000 people could die from additional heat caused by an exceptionally strong El Nino over the next six months. The forecast, released Wednesday by University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, covers the period through February 2027 and compares expected heat‑related deaths to those in a typical year.
According to the study, global land temperatures could rise by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit), with the number of extremely hot days 44 percent higher than average. Developing nations and the Sahel region in Africa will be hit hardest, with about 66,800 additional deaths projected in the Sahel.
Risk Geography and Heat Consequences
The highest death toll among individual countries is expected in Nigeria at 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600 deaths. A total of 19,400 additional fatalities are projected across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, with 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
The lab cofounder and study co‑author Michael Greenstone noted that heat poses the greatest threat where high temperatures coincide with low household incomes. “If you are already in a hot place, an extra few degrees become significantly more dangerous,” he explained, adding that wealthier regions have better access to air conditioning, water, and medical services. According to Michael Greenstone, the risks will likely outlast the El Nino itself, with consequences extending into next summer.
Call for Effective Measures
Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat specialist at NRDC India, stated that these forecasts should spur action. He pointed to weak funding and implementation of programs even in countries like India, where proper plans exist on paper. “The real measure of our preparedness is not the number of heat warnings issued, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” he emphasized.
The current El Nino, which began developing in June, is estimated by experts to be one of the strongest in history and is “amplified” by climate change. Although the United Nations meteorological agency reported in early September a 100 percent probability of the phenomenon continuing through February 2027, researchers suggest the danger could persist until mid‑2027.
