The climatic phenomenon El Niño could lead to acute famine for about 50 million people by the end of 2027, the United Nations (UN) warns. The organization predicts that the “terrible child of the Pacific Ocean,” as El Niño is called, threatens global food security.
The phenomenon, known as “Super El Niño,” is expected to be the most intense in at least 70 years. It occurs every two to seven years in the Pacific Ocean, altering rainfall patterns worldwide. Although the peak of the phenomenon is forecast between September and December, its effects on crop cycles will be felt throughout 2027, the UN warns.
In 2015 and 2016, El Niño already affected food security, impacting “between 60 and 100 million people,” according to estimates by the World Food Programme (WFP). The forecast for 2027, which estimates the number of people at risk at nearly 50 million, focuses on “45 countries that are already in a state of food insecurity and where El Niño will significantly affect rainfall patterns, temperature, and the occurrence of floods and droughts,” the WFP specifies. This figure will worsen an already tense global food situation: according to the UN, 343 million people worldwide are already suffering from hunger, partly due to droughts in Africa and rising food prices caused by the war in Iran.
“El Niño poses a significant threat to the food security of millions of already vulnerable people,” said Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Programme, as quoted in the UN communiqué. He emphasized that “severe floods and droughts can quickly push communities from stability into crisis.”
Regional consequences and WFP budget
The most significant impacts are expected in the regions of Central America and Southern Africa, as well as East Africa and Southeast Asia. Latin America and the Caribbean could experience “one of the most notable increases in food insecurity, affecting more than 16 million people,” while in Central America “the largest percentage increase (83.1%) is forecast among all analyzed regions,” the WFP specifies. The program announced a budget of at least 80 million dollars for “preventive” humanitarian measures.
Food prices could rise worldwide, as well as in the 45 studied countries, Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, told the British newspaper The Guardian. He clarified that “this will also depend on the choices made by exporting countries. It is very important to avoid a situation where large countries stop exporting food.”
Source: Libération
