Allies of the United States in the Persian Gulf are increasingly concerned about the escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran, which threatens their national security and economies. The level of dissatisfaction among Gulf countries is evident in their differing views on what steps the United States should take next. Some officials believe that President Donald Trump should intensify military actions, including the deployment of ground troops in parts of Iran and even an attempt to capture the key oil export hub—the island of Kharg, according to sources familiar with the situation who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. These officials are convinced that Iranian leaders will not back down or reduce their influence around the Strait of Hormuz unless the United States takes more decisive action, sources said. The alternative could be a prolonged, albeit low-intensity, conflict that lasts for months and deters foreign investors and tourists from the region, one source noted.
Many officials believe that the United States needs to “escalate to de-escalate,” said David Schenker, an American diplomat in the Middle East during Trump’s first term and now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Something more needs to be done because the current dynamic will not force Iran to make any concessions—whether regarding the strait or the nuclear program.” At the same time, some countries, notably Qatar, which, along with Pakistan, serves as a key mediator in the conflict, disagree with this approach and seek immediate de-escalation, sources reported. This is to prevent a repeat of the scale of hostilities seen in March and early April, when the United States and Israel struck Iranian cities, and Tehran launched thousands of drones and rockets across the Gulf.
Change in regional unity and direct attacks
This situation marks a significant shift compared to the weeks leading up to the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran in mid-June, when the Arab Gulf states largely urged Trump to use diplomacy and reduce tensions with Tehran. However, this unity has eroded as hostilities have intensified over the past two weeks, with Iran and the United States blaming each other for the collapse of the so-called memorandum of understanding they signed. Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as Jordan, have faced severe Iranian attacks. Water and energy facilities in Kuwait were hit by rockets and drones, and flights were frequently suspended. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates faced attacks on their energy tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran also shelled Oman and Iraq.
The war, which the wealthy monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) had urged Washington not to start, has led them to doubt the United States’ ability to protect its allies. Some are now seeking to strengthen defense cooperation with European countries, sources said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with Iranian leaders, especially after three American soldiers were killed and a fourth went missing in Jordan and Iraq last week. Iran has refused to stop attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Washington’s threats to intensify airstrikes.
The President of the United States faces difficult choices. Any move to introduce troops or attempt to capture the island of Kharg would likely provoke larger retaliatory attacks from Iran and further increase oil prices. It would also put hundreds, possibly thousands, of American military personnel at risk of strikes from Iranian forces at close range, which would be difficult to intercept. The Gulf countries’ dissatisfaction with Iran is growing as traffic through the critically important strait—which before the war accounted for most of their oil exports—declines again. Many officials in the region doubt that shipping will fully recover anytime soon, another source said, who was not authorized to speak publicly about it. “People are disappointed, angry,” said Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “But they say little publicly because everyone is trying to manage their relationship with Trump. They want their oil exported and their economies back to normal. This is draining them now.”
