The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) does not have a ready strategy in case of a simultaneous attack by Russia and China, as reported by The Atlantic. The publication reaches this conclusion by citing military officials and analysts, noting that the US is also not prepared for a simultaneous attack by China on Taiwan and by Russia on a European NATO country.
Until recently, such a scenario seemed absurd — “somewhere between losing a nuclear warhead and an alien invasion” — because an attack of this scale would require a conspiracy too large for Beijing and Moscow to conceal. However, warnings about this scenario emerged a year ago. Despite that, neither the US nor its allies are yet prepared to repel such an attack.
“Let’s just say: this is a scenario we are not currently prepared for”, stated Florence Gaub, director of the research division of the NATO Defense College in Rome. NATO strategists understand the threat but have not taken measures to counter it. The West has conducted only a few small exercises to gauge what a joint strategy by China and Russia might look like.
Growth of Russia and China’s capabilities
This scenario was last seriously considered by the West about 15 years ago. At that time, exercises showed that Washington had neither the stockpiles of weapons nor the industrial capacity to wage war on multiple fronts for an extended period. Since then, as noted by Mark Montgomery, a retired US Navy rear admiral, each of these indicators has only worsened.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are increasing their capabilities. Although Moscow is not achieving its goals in Ukraine, it is actively expanding its industrial base and gaining combat experience. And China is producing the largest number of drones in the world while simultaneously expanding other components. In particular, Beijing has already surpassed Washington in the number of long‑range missiles and ships.
Window of opportunity for Putin
Analysts say the window of opportunity for such an attack by Russia “has never seemed so attractive”. The US continues to keep troops in the Middle East, weakening its bases in Europe and Asia. In addition, Washington faces a shortage of missiles for air defence.
The publication notes that Putin has long aimed to dismantle NATO. The current moment of the alliance’s weakness gives him a rare chance to achieve this goal. He has already begun testing the West by violating the airspace of Eastern European NATO member states, and a recent drone incident occurred in Germany. According to US intelligence, Russia may try to test NATO’s resolve within the next few years. If, during that time, China attempts to invade Taiwan, Putin’s chances of success would increase significantly.
Earlier, journalists from Bild reported that NATO has three scenarios for a possible invasion of the Baltic states by Russia. In particular, it plans to suppress Russia’s ability to carry out airstrikes, then create an “autonomous zone” on the borders with Russia and Belarus. Afterwards, NATO intends to strike directly at the territory of Russia.
At the same time, former NATO commander James Stavridis noted that the Alliance allows for a possible Russian attack in the coming years. He believes that, for such an attack, Putin may choose the so‑called “little green men” scenario in the Baltic countries and may also try to target critical infrastructure in NATO member states.
