Yemen is nearing the resumption of a long-frozen conflict that has persisted for over a decade, according to Yemeni officials, Western diplomats, and analysts. This development follows a series of attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi infrastructure and shipping, testing the kingdom’s patience and the Yemeni government forces it supports.
Yemeni military officials and analysts have reported that in recent days, both the Houthis and Yemeni government forces have bolstered their presence along the front line that stretches across the Houthi-controlled northwest of Yemen—from the Red Sea coast to the Saudi border. Despite ongoing mediation efforts led by the United Nations and Oman, recently joined by Pakistan, a Western diplomat noted a growing pessimism regarding the prospects for a negotiated settlement.
Saudi Arabia has been striving to prevent a resurgence of conflict in Yemen since the truce with the Houthis in 2022, which paused a war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives through combat and famine, sparking international outrage. However, according to diplomats, analysts, and Yemeni officials, the recent Houthi shelling of a Saudi airport last week and the announcement of a maritime blockade against the kingdom—backed by two attacks on Saudi tankers claimed by the Houthis—could alter these calculations.
The Houthis stated that their attack on the airport was a response to a Saudi strike on an airport under their control, and the maritime blockade was retaliation for the Saudi blockade of Yemen, which Saudi Arabia has denied. “Since 2022, these are the most serious preparations for conflict I have seen,” said Baraa Shiban, a Yemeni analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies in the United Kingdom.
The government media office of Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni information minister, and a Houthi spokesman did not respond to requests for comment. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that he would hold Iran accountable for any Houthi attacks.
Escalation of tensions and mediation efforts
The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, told Reuters that he had just returned from two trips to Oman, during which he also visited Saudi Arabia, “to discuss a path to de-escalation and greater stability.” “Recent events have taken Yemen in the opposite direction, and this is first and foremost a failure for the Yemenis. My efforts continue, and the United Nations is always ready to support the parties in changing course and putting the interests of the Yemenis first,” he said.
Tensions in Yemen are escalating two weeks after the collapse of a temporary truce linked to the regional conflict involving Iran. This conflict has nearly derailed the 2023 détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which had reduced regional tensions and allowed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to focus on implementing Vision 2030, which includes large-scale infrastructure projects and hosting international events.
Although the Houthis have largely stayed out of this conflict, analysts, diplomats, and Yemeni officials note that the group and its Iranian backers now see an opportunity to increase pressure on both Saudi Arabia and the United States.
The blockade of Saudi maritime transport could impact the transportation of millions of barrels of oil per day through a pipeline to the Red Sea coast—a route used to circumvent the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
According to Shiban, for the Houthis, the escalation could also serve as a means to extract financial and political concessions from Riyadh, as well as to enhance Iran’s influence over one of the world’s key transport routes, thereby strengthening their positions around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. A senior Houthi representative stated that Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, remains open to vessels not belonging to Saudi Arabia.
Shift in international opinion and risks for Saudi Arabia
The recent tensions contrast sharply with years of Saudi Arabia’s engagement with the Houthis, which has yielded a series of concessions, including the use of the port of Hodeidah and the cancellation in 2024 of plans to block access to international banking services in areas under Houthi control.
“There is an increasing sense that peace with the Houthis is unattainable, and a delayed war could prove even more costly, especially given Saudi Arabia’s intention to host Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “It is risky, but it could pave the way,” he added, noting that U.S. support would be crucial.
The political landscape has shifted in favor of Saudi Arabia since its first intervention in 2015, when it led an Arab coalition, following the deaths of thousands of civilians during bombings that sparked pressure from the U.S. and Europe on Riyadh to end the war.
The Houthis’ attacks on Israel and international shipping after the Hamas group’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, along with the detention of dozens of UN staff, have intensified international criticism of the Houthi movement, according to analysts and Yemeni government officials. They believe this shift plays to Saudi Arabia’s advantage. Shiban noted that if Riyadh intervenes again, “there will be significantly less scrutiny.”
Source: The Straits Times
