President Donald Trump stated that there is a “good chance” of a deal with Iran amid a pause, noting that the USA and Iran are engaged in diplomatic negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, he warned that the parties would return to combat operations if the negotiations do not yield results.
“The only reason they want to meet is that we have been hitting them very hard,” Trump told journalists on Monday aboard Air Force One. He added: “There is a good chance that something could happen, and if it does, great. If not, we will go back to what we were doing.” These comments downplay the immediate prospect of military escalation following repeated threats from the USA president to carry out “massive” strikes on Iran. Trump’s remarks came after the USA refrained from attacking Iran for the third consecutive day on Monday, despite last week’s threats of a major new attack. Tehran, in turn, suspended strikes on Persian Gulf countries such as Kuwait.
Diplomatic efforts and regional tensions
It is unclear whether any substantial negotiations are taking place between the USA and Iran. Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry Esmail Baghaei stated earlier on Monday that “perhaps intermediaries are conveying messages from the American side regarding current events,” but there are no official negotiations at the moment. Both sides have resumed hostilities in recent weeks after a temporary peace agreement signed last month effectively collapsed over the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Oman and Iran are trying to reach an agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources familiar with the situation who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Tensions in the region remain high. Iran-backed Houthis on Monday claimed to have attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia with drones, although they did not specify when this occurred. Saudi Arabia had not reported any attacks from Yemen since Saturday morning but stated on Monday that it had intercepted several drones launched from Iraq targeting oil facilities.
Concerns about US military stockpiles
The publication Axios reported on Sunday that Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US commander in the Middle East, recommended halting strikes as they had reached the limit of their effectiveness, citing sources in the region. The New York Times also reported that military advisors had advised the White House against escalating the conflict due to the depletion of valuable interceptor stocks.
During a meeting with Trump last week, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine indicated that resuming strikes on Iran was possible but would raise concerns about the availability of key US munitions, according to a person familiar with the conversation. The source noted that concerns about depleted munitions were not the main factor. On Monday, Trump stated that the USA has “a lot of ammunition,” but admitted: “Frankly, I would like to have more.”
He blamed former President Joe Biden and arms supplies to Ukraine for depleting the US arsenal and highlighted the high demand and difficulty in replacing high-tech interceptors such as Patriot missiles. “A lot of equipment is being built — Patriots are being built,” Trump told journalists, adding: “We are in very good shape. But regarding some of the more sophisticated things, we would certainly like to have more of them.”
