A new poll shows that President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva‘s lead over right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed to one percentage point ahead of Brazil’s elections in October.
According to the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday, in a potential second round, Lula would receive 46% of the votes, while Bolsonaro would garner 45%. In the previous BTG/Nexus poll at the end of July, the left-wing leader held a 4 percentage point lead, with 47% to 43%. Changes in support levels for both candidates remain within the poll’s margin of error, which is 2 percentage points.
Other Polls and Bolsonaro’s Challenges
Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent president, maintains a larger lead over Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in other recent polls. Notably, in the AtlasIntel poll released last week, he led his opponent by 6 percentage points (49% to 43%), while the Datafolha poll at the end of July indicated a lead of 5 percentage points.
Although Bolsonaro has secured support from right-wing conservative leaders abroad, including Javier Milei from Argentina, he is working to strengthen alliances with Brazil’s leading centrist and right-of-center parties following the official start of his campaign. He has not yet announced a candidate for the vice presidency.
Brazilians will vote on October 4 in the first round of elections, with a likely second round occurring three weeks later. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll was conducted by telephone among 2,002 voters from July 31 to August 2. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval.
Source: Bloomberg
