President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress face growing challenges ahead of the midterm elections in November, according to three national polls showing Democrats leading on key voter sentiment indicators.
Polls released in recent days suggest that Democrats have an advantage in voting intentions for Congress, and in one study they are ahead of Republicans on the economy ahead of the midterm elections. Control of Congress will be decided in November, and shifts in voter sentiment could affect a number of highly competitive races. Republicans, who are defending a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress, face increasing pressure in key districts where independent voters could determine the outcome. Midterm elections often serve as a referendum on the party controlling the White House, and even modest changes in public opinion can have significant consequences for control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s approval rating fell to 35%, while in the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll it was 37%. Among registered voters, Democrats led in the overall party support rating for the congressional elections with 42% against 37%. Independent voters favored Democratic candidates by a margin of 12 percentage points. Reuters/Ipsos polled 4,505 adult residents of the USA online across the country from July 30 to August 3. The poll’s margin of error was 2 percentage points.
Competitive districts and voter sentiment
A new analysis by Economist/YouGov showed that Democratic support extends beyond traditionally Democratic districts. At the national level, registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 4 percentage points. More importantly for control of the House of Representatives, voters in the 65 most competitive congressional districts favored Democrats 45% to 40%, reported YouGov.
The poll also revealed alarming signals for incumbent Republicans in key districts. In districts represented by Republicans, only 33% of voters viewed their representative positively, while 49% viewed them negatively, resulting in a net rating of minus 16. Independent voters proved to be particularly important: in competitive districts represented by Democrats, independent voters had net positive views of their member of Congress, while in comparable districts held by Republicans, independent voters were significantly more negative. YouGov also found that Trump’s national rating is negative: 36% approved of his work, while 60% disapproved. The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 3 among 1,609 citizens of the USA aged 18 and older. Respondents were selected from the YouGov online panel and weighted to be representative of the adult population of the USA. The adjusted margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Trump’s rating and White House response
The I&I/TIPP poll presented a somewhat different picture, showing that support for Trump remains largely stable rather than continuing to decline. The poll found that 39% of voters viewed Trump positively, while 52% viewed him negatively. His job approval rating was 38%, while 52% disapproved. Although these figures have changed little since July, the poll showed that the president continues to face significant shortcomings among independent voters, who rated him negatively both in terms of favorability and job performance.
Respondents gave Trump the highest ratings for his policy on immigration and border security. He received the lowest ratings on inflation and cost of living, healthcare, and the economy. The newest of the three polls, conducted by I&I/TIPP from July 28 to August 1, surveyed 1,463 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. White House press secretary Davis Ingle repeatedly pointed to what the administration calls progress in employment, inflation, and housing affordability. “No other president in history has achieved more for the American people than President Trump, who tirelessly works to create jobs, curb inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” said Ingle. “The president has already achieved historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues to take effect.”
Source: Newsweek
