Over the past 12 months, Africa has recorded a record 23,872 deaths related to the activities of Islamist militant groups. Thus, since 2023, the number of such deaths annually has remained at over 20,000. The increase in the annual number of deaths over 12 months to mid-2026 was due, in particular, to a 60% surge in the number of victims in the Lake Chad Basin and Mozambique.
The Sahel accounts for 42% of the total number of recorded deaths in Africa, followed by Somalia and the Lake Chad Basin with 28% each. These regional trends reflect the dynamics of Islamist militant violence in Africa in recent years. Of approximately 166,000 people killed as a result of extremist violence in Africa over the past decade, 92% died in the Sahel, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin. Although Islamist militant violence was observed in 15 African countries over the past year, 94% of the deaths occurred in 5 countries: Somalia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Situation in the Sahel and the expansion of groups
The coalition of Islamist militant groups JNIM is the deadliest in the region, accounting for 76% of all deaths related to militant activities. In March 2017, the JNIM coalition was officially formed, and since then, the number of deaths related to Islamist militant activities in the Sahel has increased approximately 22 times. Attacks in several cities and the group’s ability to disrupt the operation of key infrastructure in Mali and Burkina Faso indicate an increase in its level of organization and coordination.
The group Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), operating mainly in the border areas of the Sahel states, is linked to 19% of deaths (1,842 deaths) caused by Islamist militant groups in the region. ISGS continues to hold the Menaka region in Mali, despite attempts by the military and JNIM to dislodge it. The group also continues to attack military positions in Niger, including the Niamey airport in January 2026. ISGS is characterized by active use of violence against the civilian population: it accounts for 47% of all civilian deaths due to Islamist militant groups in the Sahel. This is the second highest rate among such groups on the continent. Niger is one of the main centers of this violence. Civilian deaths account for approximately 35% of all deaths related to Islamist militant groups in Niger, which is a higher rate than in other parts of the region.
The armed forces of Mali and Burkina Faso, along with their Russian partners, continue to be linked to a greater number of civilian deaths than JNIM and ISGS combined. This contributes to the recruitment of new members to Islamist militant groups. In recent years, Sahel groups have made coordinated efforts to expand their activities in the coastal countries of West Africa, especially in Benin and Togo. Control over trade routes to Burkina Faso and Mali could further increase the revenues that JNIM and ISGS can use.
Over the past year, the number of deaths has decreased by 78% in both Benin (from 277 to 81) and Togo (from 194 to 43). This is largely due to stabilization measures undertaken by these countries. At the same time, JNIM is expected to continue attempts to expand its presence in these countries, as well as in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
Islamist militant groups in the Sahel have begun actively spreading their influence to the northwest of Nigeria over the past year. The number of deaths related to these groups has increased from zero in 2024 to 136 in 2025 and 504 in 2026. Both JNIM and ISGS appear to be collaborating with other armed groups in Nigeria — from the Sadiku faction of Boko Haram, Ansaru, and Lakurawa to various criminal groups known locally as bandits. Lakurawa has become particularly active: the number of deaths related to this group has increased from 136 to 509 over the past year. The merger of violent extremism and organized crime creates a new and increasingly serious security threat for the Nigerian authorities.
Somalia: the second deadliest region
In Somalia, since 2023, an average of about 7,350 deaths related to Islamist militant groups has been recorded annually, making the country the second deadliest center of such violence after the Sahel. 95% of these deaths are related to Al-Shabaab, which is the most financially secure Islamist militant group in Africa, with an estimated annual income of 200 million dollars and control over significant territories. The consistently high level of violence in recent years reflects an increase in the average annual number of deaths by 88% — from 3,900 to 7,350 — compared to a decade earlier.
Deaths from combat operations usually accounted for over 70% of recorded deaths in Somalia, reflecting the struggle for control over territories and key transport routes. However, with the increased use of airstrikes and drones, the situation has changed. Now, remote violence accounts for about 40% of deaths. Al-Shabaab poses a regional security threat due to its extensive and large-scale illegal income schemes covering East Africa and the Red Sea region. The growing ties between Al-Shabaab and the militarized Houthi group in Yemen enhance the ability of both groups to carry out destabilizing actions, including disrupting maritime navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Al-Shabaab is also linked to piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the western part of the Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia. The resurgence of piracy, which began in 2023, along with Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, increases risks for commercial shipping, causing billions in economic losses and rising transport costs.
The forces of Puntland in Somalia, working with international partners, including the United States, have continued to significantly weaken the capabilities of the Islamic State in Somalia (I-SS). These actions have resulted in nearly 2,000 deaths, mainly p
