The government of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is becoming increasingly unpopular among young voters, according to public opinion polls, and this trend could cost her dearly ahead of the national elections scheduled for next year.
Analysts note that since taking office in 2022, Meloni has done little in economic terms to expand opportunities for young people, instead adopting a series of law and order measures that often disproportionately affect young people. As a result, dissatisfaction is growing among those aged 18 to 34, which could be decisive in the 2027 elections, which are expected to be a fierce battle between her right-wing coalition and the left-centrist opposition.
“Younger voters are clearly leaning towards the left-centrists,” Reuters reported Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of the sociological agency Youtrend. According to him, Meloni’s coalition, which includes her party “Brothers of Italy” (FDI), Matteo Salvini’s “League” and the more moderate party “Forward, Italy” of Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, currently has less than 30% support among voters under 35 years old. In comparison, the opposition bloc, dominated by the Democratic Party (PD), “Five Star Movement” and the Left-Green Alliance (AVS), has nearly 50% support in the same age group. At the peak of her popularity in 2023, Youtrend polls showed that her party alone had roughly the same support among young people as the entire ruling coalition does now.
Young Italians also show the same gender gap seen in other European countries: men tend to vote more for the right, and women prefer the left. This emerges from last year’s study by the Milan University Bocconi, based on data from the sociological company SWG. The most notable party differences were shown by the ratio of support for Meloni’s FDI: 15% among men aged 18-29 and only 4.2% among women. At the same time, the “Five Star Movement” was supported by 18% of women under 30 and only 5.1% of men.
Lack of reforms to expand opportunities for young people
Lorenzo De Sio, a professor of political science at the Rome University Luiss, said that the main reason for young people’s dissatisfaction with the government is its inertia in economic policy. “Meloni has not carried out significant economic reforms. This is good if you benefit from the status quo, but very bad for those who are least protected by it, which often means young people,” he said. Meloni’s office declined to answer questions from Reuters for this article.
According to Eurostat, the employment rate in Italy among people aged 15-24 is the lowest in the eurozone, which consists of 21 countries, and the country invests less in education than almost all its partners in the currency bloc. According to the Bank of Italy, a young graduate in Germany earns on average 80% more than his Italian counterpart, and tens of thousands of young Italians leave the country every year in search of better prospects abroad.
The government’s approval rating among voters under 35 is only 25%, compared to 35% among the general population, according to Youtrend data. Meloni also faces competition for young voters in her ideological camp. The far-right opposition party “National Future”, founded in February by former army general Roberto Vannacci, is already polling at around 7%. Polls show that the party has the most support among middle-aged men, but Vannacci also enjoys significant support among anti-immigrant urban youth, who like his promise to return thousands of migrants to their countries of origin. “Vannacci is certainly doing better among young voters than the ruling parties,” Pregliasco said.
Strengthening security measures
The government’s security measures have affected various groups — from prisoners to migrants, but young people have often found themselves at the epicenter of events. After cracking down on rave parties in the government’s first legislative decree after coming to power, further steps were taken against the production of so-called “light” cannabis, destructive street protests, squatters and juvenile crime. A nationwide student protest called “A Day Without Meloni” last November brought together thousands of people who opposed the security decrees, cuts in education spending and Meloni’s support for Israel in Gaza.
Last month, the government introduced a bill to change the rules on criminal liability for minors. According to it, people aged 14 to 17 who commit crimes will be considered fully responsible unless proven otherwise. This changes the current rules, under which a judge must establish that the minor understood the consequences of their actions. A 2023 decree that toughened sanctions for juvenile offenders has already led to a 50% increase in the number of juvenile prisoners, according to the human rights group Antigone. At the same time, teenagers cannot receive sex education in school without written parental consent under another government decision.
Meloni’s low support among young people has long been hidden by low voter turnout. In Italy, people under 35 usually vote less often, so instead of expressing dissatisfaction with the government in elections, they often simply do not come to the polls. However, this trend changed sharply in the March referendum on judicial system reform, which was supported by Meloni. Approximately 67% of people under 35 participated in the vote, and 60% of them rejected the reform, while the overall turnout was 59%, and 54% of participants voted “against”. A few days before the decisive referendum, Meloni joined an ironic podcast by a popular rapper, trying to attract the attention of young voters. “The referendum showed what impact young people can have if they vote en masse. In the next elections, they could be decisive,” De Sio said.
