This year’s El Niño phenomenon may become the strongest in over a century, British forecasters have announced.
The UK Met Office predicts that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific Ocean may exceed three degrees, which would be an unprecedented figure in modern climate observations. This could cause severe droughts in South America and the western Pacific, as well as have serious consequences for global food security.
The El Niño phenomenon is recorded when the sea surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean exceeds the long-term average by at least 0.5°C. This causes global changes in winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation patterns, and usually leads to an increase in the average global temperature.
Unprecedented intensity
Adam Scaife, head of the long-term forecasting department at the Met Office, told the BBC: “We expect the strongest El Niño in over a century, which will peak at over three degrees — this is unprecedented in modern climate data.” He called it a “unprecedented event,” adding: “I have never seen such an intense El Niño signal in our forecasts.”
According to Scaife, the abnormal warming, which is already “nearly two degrees,” will have a particularly strong impact in tropical regions, “where we expect very severe droughts in places like South America and the western Pacific.”
According to data from the Climate Brink panel, the temperature in the region is currently approximately 2.6°C above the average for the last 30 years.
Long-term consequences
“These are not short-term weather forecasts. We are talking about truly long-term, persistent conditions. There are well-known consequences for other systems, including food security,” Scaife, a physicist specializing in climate modeling, noted.
The weather phenomenon is also expected to cause “an increase in rainfall and storms in the UK in the fall, around November,” Scaife added.
Source: France 24
