President Lula (Workers’ Party, PT) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) maintain a technical tie in the second round of elections — 46% against 45% respectively. This is according to the results of a BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday, August 24. In the previous poll, Lula had 47%, and his main opponent had 44%.
Lula also receives 46% in a simulated second round against former governor of Goias state Ronald Caiado (PSD), who is forecasted to get 42%. Thus, the current president is ahead of his opponent within the margin of statistical error. In scenarios against Romeu Zema (Novo) and Renan Santos (Missão), Lula would win with a result of 47% against 40% and 35% respectively.
Details of the poll and first-round scenarios
The poll was conducted from Friday, August 21, to Sunday, August 23, using telephone interviews. It involved 2,006 voters aged 16 and older from across Brazil. The confidence level is 95%, and the study is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the code BR-09028/2026. The company Nexus considered two first-round scenarios: one without the participation of influencer Pablo Marçal and another with his candidacy.
In the scenario without Pablo Marçal, Lula receives 41% of voting intentions, and Flavio Bolsonaro receives 37%. In the previous poll, their results were 41% and 36% respectively. Ronald Caiado maintains 5%. Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each lost one percentage point compared to the previous poll and have 3% each. Augusto Curi (Avante) receives 2%, and Samara Martins (UP) receives 1%. Another 5% of respondents would choose a blank or invalid ballot, and 3% could not answer or refused to answer.
Candidates Ruy Costa Pimenta (PCO), Herz Dias (PSTU), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Wilson Grassi (DEM), and Clariana Barau (DC) did not even reach 1%.
In the scenario with Pablo Marçal, he receives 4% of voting intentions. In this case, Lula has 40%, and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro has 34%. Ronald Caiado receives 5%, and Renan Santos receives 3%. Romeu Zema and Augusto Curi each have 2%. Samara Martins, Clariana Barau, and Ruy Costa Pimenta each receive 1%. Herz Dias and Edmilson Costa did not even reach 1%. Another 4% of respondents would choose a blank or invalid ballot, and 3% could not answer or did not answer.
Legal issues of Pablo Marçal
Pablo Marçal is awaiting the consideration of his case in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). On Wednesday, August 19, he activated the Pix key and began raising funds to finance his campaign. The day before, on Thursday, August 20, the court ruled that the entrepreneur would not be able to use electoral fund funds, participate in debates, or receive airtime on radio and television.
During the plenary session, the rapporteur of the case, Minister Estela Aranha, stated that there is a risk of using public funds for «a candidacy that, based on a preliminary assessment, appears to be legally unviable due to the likely lack of necessary conditions to participate in the elections». Minister André Mendonça, vice president of TSE, agreed with her and called for expediting the hearing of Marçal’s defense and the final consideration of the issue of his candidacy.
Earlier, Marçal was barred from running by a decision of the Regional Electoral Court of São Paulo (TRE-SP) due to abuse of the media. This refers to a «cutting championship» he organized among his subscribers to publish videos on the internet during his campaign for mayor of São Paulo in 2024, where he came in third place.
The decision to bar Marçal from running can still be appealed. However, according to the rules of the Brazilian Clean Record Law (Lei da Ficha Limpa), a collegiate court decision is already sufficient to prevent him from participating in other elections. The registration of Pablo Marçal’s candidacy is likely to be rejected by the TSE judges, who consider his application an attempt to destabilize the electoral process. According to two court judges and interlocutors of two other TSE members, his disqualification is evident and does not allow him to participate in the elections. The consideration of the case is likely to take place only at the beginning of September due to the legal procedural deadlines of the TSE.
