Fresh U.S. intelligence data indicates that the Kremlin views the United States as weakened by the war with Iran, creating an opportunity for Russia to intensify actions against American interests and allies in Europe, two sources familiar with the situation said.
This intelligence emerged ahead of the mysterious trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow this week. The details of his negotiations with his Russian counterpart remain secret, but one source told The Washington Post that the CIA chief warned Moscow against escalating the war against Ukraine, saying such a move would backfire.
Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on Tuesday aboard a C-17A military transport aircraft, after stopping in Riga, the capital of Latvia. It was the first known visit by a CIA director to Moscow since late 2021, when President Joe Biden’s then‑intelligence chief William J. Burns tried to dissuade the Kremlin from invading Ukraine.
The head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin confirmed the talks with Ratcliffe, stating that there was “nothing unusual” in the meetings. Kremlin officials said Ratcliffe did not meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. The CIA and the White House declined to comment on the trip.
Weakening of the US and weapons shortages
Classified intelligence suggesting that Putin sees the US as weakened by the six‑month war with Iran appeared after reports of reduced combat readiness and ammunition shortages caused by the prolonged campaign against Tehran.
Stocks of key American weapons have been significantly depleted, including Patriot air‑defense systems and other air‑defense assets, as well as modern offensive weapons such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) operational‑tactical missiles, which Ukraine also needs.
Earlier, The Washington Post reported that the US had lost about a quarter of its Reaper drones, each valued at between 30 and 50 million dollars. These drones are used for reconnaissance and targeting. The shortage has raised concerns among US allies in Asia and called into question Washington’s ability to deter a potential confrontation with China.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have publicly denied a serious ammunition shortage while urging weapons manufacturers to accelerate production.
Sources familiar with the collection of intelligence regarding Putin’s assessment of the US strategic position amid the war with Iran did not provide details on how the data was obtained or how confident CIA analysts are in its accuracy.
Warning to Moscow and the threat of escalation in Europe
Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was “less about Putin being cornered” because his army cannot break the stalemate on the Ukrainian front and “more about Russia viewing us as exhausted and unable to intervene”, one source said.
Ratcliffe told Russian officials that if Putin significantly escalates the war in Ukraine, it could push Donald Trump closer to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
President Donald Trump on Thursday downplayed concerns about a possible order from Putin to attack US allies in Europe. “He is not going to attack NATO territory,” Trump said, dismissing questions about the purpose of Ratcliffe’s trip.
Amid a largely stalemated ground war in Ukraine, Moscow and Kyiv are inflicting increasingly destructive strikes on each other’s territory. Ukraine is hitting high‑priority targets, often focusing on key facilities in Russia’s energy sector and online commerce. Moscow, in turn, continues to strike civilian sites, including residential buildings, as well as industrial infrastructure and power plants across Ukraine.
Russia has taken advantage of the reduction in Ukraine’s air‑defense interceptors, previously supplied by the United States. European countries have pledged missile interceptors to Kyiv, but many will not arrive until next year.
As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, Europe has faced hybrid attacks, including an attempted drone strike on Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. Many analysts and some governments believe Russia is likely behind these incidents.
NATO countries in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic states, have expressed concern that Putin may increase pressure through increasingly provocative incursions, continuing the pattern of airspace violations and the use of drones that sometimes deviate from their planned routes.
