President Donald Trump’s strategy to maintain support among Latino voters in Texas is facing headwinds. More than half of the state’s Latino population believes the economic situation has worsened compared to last year, and Democrats are leading in several key U.S. House races.
In Texas’s 28th Congressional District, where Republicans hoped to solidify their standing after redistricting, Democrat Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina by 11 percentage points, according to a Texas Southern University poll. Notably, 20% of registered Republicans and 23% of voters who supported Trump in 2024 say they intend to back Henry Cuellar. A sizable share of the electorate remains undecided, leaving the race outcome uncertain.
During a visit to Tano Tijerina’s campaign headquarters, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson urged voters to be patient on inflation. He also noted that, in the long term, Republicans will benefit from population growth in traditionally Republican states like Texas. Yet, to stay competitive, the party must win Latino voters.
“Brighter days are ahead of us,” Mike Johnson said.
Congressional races
In the 35th District, which was also redrawn to favor Republicans, Republican Party candidate Carlos De La Cruz—the brother of Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz—holds a narrow lead over Democrat Johnny Garcia, a deputy sheriff for Bexar County. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a likely Republican win. However, Johnny Garcia has received national backing from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which listed the district among two Texas races Democrats hope to flip.
Another redrawn district is the 28th, stretching from Laredo to San Antonio. Here, Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who switched to the Republican Party after the 2024 election, is trying to unseat incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar. Mike Johnson and House leadership have funneled roughly $377,000 into his campaign, about a third of all funds raised. Tano Tijerina also enjoys support from major Republican donors, including Ken Griffin and Paul Singer.
Henry Cuellar has represented the district since 2005 and has built a reputation as a conservative Democrat. The only passenger terminal at the Laredo International Airport bears his name. In 2024, when Donald Trump carried the district, Henry Cuellar retained his seat despite federal charges of bribery, money laundering, and conspiracy against him and his wife, which they denied.
In December 2025, Donald Trump pardoned Henry Cuellar. Shortly afterward, the congressman filed for reelection as a Democrat. Donald Trump has publicly criticized Henry Cuellar, citing a lack of loyalty.
In the 34th District, also redrawn to favor Republicans, the GOP candidate’s deficit is smaller. According to a Texas Southern University poll, incumbent Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez leads Republican Eric Flores 45% to 42%.
Mark Jones, co‑author of the Texas Southern University report, described these results as “a bucket of cold water” for those who viewed Donald Trump’s success in these districts as a new political reality.
In the 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Monica De La Cruz by about 5 percentage points, according to the same Texas Southern University poll. Redistricting did not dramatically change the district’s partisan balance, but it forced Monica De La Cruz to run in an area where only roughly two‑fifths of her current constituents live.
Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music performer, is campaigning by appearing at local quinceañera celebrations.
Latinos emerge as a key voting bloc
Support for Democrats among Latino voters is rising but has not yet returned to pre‑Trump levels, according to Joshua Blank, research director at the Texas Politics Project. He noted that Donald Trump’s advantage with this group has narrowed but remains above historical norms.
Both parties are intensifying outreach to Latino voters. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico recently launched new Spanish‑language ads statewide. The organization Somos Votantes and its affiliated Somos PAC are spending $6 million on Latino outreach in several districts.
Texas Republicans have started a bilingual door‑knocking program, aiming to contact at least 700,000 Latino voters across 11 campaigns. The party is also leveraging networks that Republican strategists, including Dave Carney, began building after Greg Abbott’s 2014 gubernatorial win.
“We wanted to build infrastructure there and build a bench,” Dave Carney said.
Many Latinos continue to back Republicans and Donald Trump. In Laredo, Tano Tijerina positions himself as a counterweight to the Democratic Socialists of America, whose recent primary successes elsewhere have unsettled some regional business owners.
Donald Trump’s support for fossil‑fuel extraction has also earned votes in South Texas, where the Eagle Ford shale region is a major employer. His blunt rhetoric and business‑person persona resonate with many voters, says Jessica Vera‑Rios, chair of the Democratic Party in border‑adjacent Starr County. She noted that Donald Trump performed better than other Republicans, including Senator Ted Cruz.
Economy and immigration policy shift sentiment
More than a year and a half into Donald Trump’s second term, his influence among some voters is waning. In a recent Texas Politics Project poll at the University of Texas at Austin, rising prices and the state of the economy were the top concerns for Latino respondents.
Donald Trump’s success in reducing border crossings has also made illegal immigration a less pressing issue for many voters. Some former supporters now express concern over the White House’s stricter immigration policies.
Mario Guerrero, owner of the construction firm Rich Heritage Construction and executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, said construction timelines in the region have doubled because workers fear being…
