August was an exceptionally hot month globally, with ocean surface temperatures reaching record highs as global warming combined with a strengthening El Niño. Ocean temperatures have set records for three consecutive months, Simon van Gennip of Mercator Ocean International said on Thursday. He noted that in some overheated ocean basins, marine heatwaves lasted more than 60 days, which «underscores how unusual and prolonged» the situation.
In August, global sea‑surface temperatures set a new single‑day record and matched the mark for the hottest month for oceans on record. According to the Copernicus service, the primary drivers were global warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas, as well as a sharp rise in temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, where a historically powerful El Niño is intensifying.
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm water in the Pacific, but it also triggers major shifts in rainfall and wind patterns, raising the likelihood of extreme weather events thousands of miles away. Global forecasters expect this year’s event to peak later in the year with an intensity not seen in the modern era.
Impact of climate change and forecasts
According to Copernicus, the impact of El Niño is already being felt in Indonesia, where a long and intense dry season has fueled forest fires that have engulfed large areas of the island of Borneo. Meanwhile, climatologists warn that the worst is yet to come, and the anomalous August heat may be only a precursor to further temperature records.
Even typical El Niño events temporarily raise global temperatures, amplifying the effects of long‑term climate change. Because of this, years with El Niño are often exceptionally warm. Scientists expect that 2027 could be a record year after the El Niño peak, though Samantha Burgess, an oceanographer and deputy director of the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), noted that 2026 has also become a serious contender for a temperature record.
«We expected 2026 to be in the top five warmest, but now it is in second place, possibly first. We have witnessed a stark reminder of how quickly the climate system can change when several factors are acting at the same time», said Burgess.
She added that the combination of climate change and El Niño could produce new temperature records «over the next six months». Climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said climate change makes every El Niño hotter, and until humanity stops burning coal, oil and gas, record‑breaking hot months will keep recurring.
Regional temperature records
According to Copernicus, Western Europe experienced its hottest summer on record, surpassing the previous long‑standing record from 2003. The season featured a series of intense heatwaves that led to school closures, dried‑up rivers and conditions ripe for large‑scale forest fires.
The monitoring platform EuroMOMO estimated that more than 32,000 excess deaths were recorded in Europe between mid‑July and mid‑August. Meanwhile, the period from June to August was tied as the warmest globally on record, matching the mark from 2024.
An AFP analysis based on Copernicus data showed that regions home to about 900 million people experienced their hottest July on record. Additionally, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on Wednesday that the contiguous United States experienced its hottest summer on record.
«This summer was exceptional», said Burgess, adding that the climate «will continue to become more extreme unless we stop global emissions».
Source: Phys.org
