Less than half of Americans expect the November 2026 midterm elections to be free and fair, according to a new national survey from the University of California, San Diego. In a study conducted from September 1 to 9 among 5,016 American adults by the university’s Center for Transparent and Trustworthy Elections (CTTE), only 49% of voters said they expect free and fair elections. Meanwhile, 23% do not expect fair elections, and 28% are undecided.
Confidence in the accuracy of the national vote count has dropped significantly since the 2024 presidential election. While 77% of Americans were confident immediately after that election that votes nationwide were counted according to voter intent, that figure fell to 60% by January 2026 and stands at 55% as of September. This decline in trust spans all political groups, though it is most pronounced among independent voters, whose confidence has dropped from 57% to 49% in recent months. Among Democrats, the figure shifted from 64% to 63%, while among Republicans, it fell from 65% to 58%. Notably, 89% of respondents said they are at least moderately confident in their level of trust. “What is notable is that trust is not falling within one party—we are seeing a decline in confidence among Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters,” said Thad Kousser, co-director of the center and a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego School of Social Sciences.
The impact of artificial intelligence and election security
One shared concern among voters of all parties is the potential impact of artificial intelligence: 76% of Americans fear that deceptive audio and video deepfakes created with AI will influence the 2026 midterms. Across all political groups, respondents were more likely to view AI as harmful rather than beneficial to elections. Republicans were 2.6 times more likely to choose “mostly harmful” over “mostly beneficial,” Democrats 3.4 times more likely, and independent voters 4.1 times more likely.
Additionally, 71% of Americans support banning election officials from betting on election outcomes via prediction markets. This ban received broad support even among those who personally bet on elections through Polymarket and Kalshi. Other sources of distrust include the way electoral districts are drawn (44%), the security of elections against foreign interference (41%), and the protection of voting technology from cyberattacks (39%). “Our results show broad concern regarding AI-generated misinformation and foreign interference, even among voters who may have significant disagreements on other aspects of how elections are conducted,” noted Lauren Prather, an associate professor at the University of California, San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and co-director of the CTTE.
Partisan divides on mail-in voting and the presence of officers
Mail-in voting remains a source of deep partisan division: 19% of Democrats, 35% of independent voters, and 53% of Republicans express distrust in the accuracy of counting such ballots.
The survey also addressed the potential presence of federal immigration officers at polling stations. Among Democrats, 60% said their presence would decrease their confidence that votes in their district or city would be counted according to voter intent, while 7% said it would increase their confidence. Among independent voters, 37% said their confidence would decrease, while 19% said it would increase. Among Republicans, the results were the opposite: 46% said the presence of federal immigration officers would increase their confidence in the accuracy of the vote count, while 9% said it would decrease it.
Source: Phys.org
