OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, on June 18 retained its forecast for significant growth in global oil demand over the next four years and raised its long-term outlook, stating it sees no signs of peak demand. According to its report “World Oil Outlook 2026”, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, global demand will grow to 113.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030 from 105.1 million b/d in 2025. By 2050, OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 124 million b/d, higher than the 122.9 million b/d forecast in the 2025 report.
OPEC cites the global shift towards more favorable oil use policies, along with increased attention to energy security and accessibility. These changes are reflected in policy adjustments and cancellations that are expected to support oil demand in the medium and long term. Demand growth will also be driven by long-term development in India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, despite “remarkable progress” by China in transitioning to renewable energy sources.
Changes in Energy Policy and Consumption
Among examples of policy changes, OPEC mentioned the slower-than-expected implementation of electric vehicles (EV) in Europe. Also noted were changes in the policies of the administration of US President Donald Trump, which affect support for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and fuel efficiency standards.
OPEC’s views, as an organization with 11 members that largely depend on oil for government revenue, on demand are more optimistic than those of other industry players. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in November that oil demand will reach 113 million b/d by the middle of the century, which is significantly lower than OPEC’s forecast. The IEA previously expected demand to peak by 2029.
Challenges for OPEC and Shale Oil Production
This OPEC report comes amid unprecedented challenges in 2026. The war in Iran has forced Persian Gulf exporters to make significant cuts in exports, and the United Arab Emirates, which had been an OPEC member for nearly 60 years, shocked other members by leaving the group.
According to ship tracking data, the United States became the world’s largest oil exporter in 2026, reflecting the country’s shale oil production boom, as well as disruptions to exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia due to wars and sanctions. In its report, OPEC noted that US tight crude, or shale oil, production is likely to peak in 2025 at just over 9 million b/d. OPEC forecasts modest overall growth in US liquid hydrocarbon supplies of 400,000 b/d to 2030, after which production is expected to plateau. Non-OPEC+ production, which includes countries outside the OPEC+ group, is expected to peak in the early 2030s.
OPEC calls for increased investment in the oil sector, stating that the sector will require spending of $17.7 trillion by 2050, compared to $18.2 trillion estimated in 2025.
Source: The Straits Times