Mexico has made one of the largest energy investments in its modern history. The government plans to add about 32,000 megawatts of new electricity generation capacity by 2030, a move that aims to reform the country’s energy system. President Claudia Sheinbaum described the plan as historic. The initiative will cost 739 billion pesos, or approximately 40 billion dollars, to be allocated over her six-year term. For investors looking to Mexico as a destination for investment or development, the plan addresses a pressing question: where will the energy for new plants and data centers come from, and who will control it?
The key figures were presented by the Ministry of Energy during the president’s morning press conference. According to the ministry’s official plan, around 70% of the new capacity, approximately 22,000 megawatts, will be renewable. Solar energy will play a leading role, with the plan allocating more than 12,000 megawatts for photovoltaic energy and nearly 7,000 megawatts for wind, alongside geothermal, hydroelectric, and initial steps in green hydrogen production.
State leadership in energy
To stabilize the grid during sunset and periods of low wind, the state utility company will construct five new gas power plants. These plants will add nearly 10,000 megawatts of reliable reserve capacity to support variable renewable sources. A notable aspect of the plan is who will build and own these facilities. The state power company CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad) is expected to provide about 79% of the new capacity, utilizing its own funds or through mixed agreements that keep assets under state ownership.
This represents a deliberate policy shift. Officials pointed out that the share of state generation has declined from near total dominance in 2000 to about 43% in 2023, with a goal to restore it to over 60%. The political message is clear: energy is viewed as a matter of national sovereignty, and the government insists that strategic energy assets remain in state hands rather than being controlled by private or foreign firms. This trend has also been observed globally this year, as governments from Europe to Asia are reclaiming control over sectors they deem too strategic to leave entirely to the market.
The plan’s ambitions are illustrated by two flagship projects: a solar and green hydrogen complex named Oasis will supply energy to a remote off-grid area, while a large solar farm in Sonora is expected to reach 1,000 megawatts and become one of the largest in the Americas. The scale of the leap in renewable energy is significant; compared to 2024 levels, the plan anticipates an increase in solar generation by about 140%, geothermal by 90%, and wind by 70%. The solar farm in Sonora exemplifies how the funds will be allocated: the project, which will be built in four phases by 2028, is expected to attract total investments of nearly 1.5 billion dollars, with each phase contributing additional capacity.
Reducing dependence and climate benefits
The plan aims to reduce dependence on imported energy. Mexico currently imports most of the natural gas it uses for electricity, primarily from the United States. The transition to renewable sources seeks to decrease this reliance from about four-fifths of generation today to three-fifths by 2030. Additionally, there are climate benefits; the government estimates that a cleaner energy mix will prevent emissions of about 69 million tons of carbon dioxide and eliminate the need for dozens of new gas power plants.
However, for investors, the challenge lies in the state model itself. A larger role for the state utility company offers scale and direction but may also limit opportunities for private developers who hoped to build and own renewable energy facilities independently. A deeper test will be implementation. Announcing 40 billion dollars and renewable targets is the easy part; ensuring that power plants are built on schedule and that there is an uninterrupted power supply during the transition will determine whether this investment pays off.
Source: Wire News