The UK’s Met Office has warned of the risk of sudden flooding in regions of the country affected by drought, as heavy downpours have returned. The warning came after intense rains on Wednesday and Thursday, following a summer marked by severe heatwaves and dry weather. These conditions have led to drought across all of Wales and nearly three-quarters of England.
According to the Environment Agency (EA), the most rainfall in the last 24 hours fell in northwest England. The coastal town of Morcam in Lancashire recorded 52.5 mm of precipitation. This amount is about a third of the average rainfall in the region from June 1 to August 18 this year, which was up to 156 mm, according to Met Office data. Significant rainfall also occurred in the south of the country: an EA monitoring station at Pevensey Bay in East Sussex recorded 32 mm of rain over the same 24-hour period.
Consequences of downpours and weather forecast
Senior Met Office meteorologist Craig Snell noted that most areas of the UK received at least some precipitation, with many places experiencing heavier amounts. According to him, the weather has changed significantly over the past 24-48 hours compared to the conditions observed in many parts of the country over the previous few months.
At the same time, Snell warned that wetter weather after the fifth heatwave this summer creates a risk of flooding, as heavy downpours fall on parched ground.
“Unfortunately, some of these downpours have already had consequences. Some areas in the northwest and southern coast of England have experienced local flooding over the past approximately 24 hours. This is partly because the rain is falling on parched ground, so the water is not being absorbed as it normally would,” he said.
According to the Met Office, downpours continued near the coast on Thursday evening but are likely to ease overnight in inland areas, while clear spells are expected elsewhere.
On Friday, further downpours are forecast for most parts of the UK, although, according to Snell, they are likely to be less widespread and intense than on Thursday. Thunderstorms are also possible overnight in some areas of Wales and western England.
Over the weekend, drier and sunnier weather is expected to return. Temperatures in the south of the country will be around 20°C, and in the north, from high teens to low 20s. According to Snell, from Tuesday, rain is likely to return, mainly in the form of showers coming from the southwest.
Drought continues to worsen
The Drought Response Expert Group also warned of the risk of flooding due to heavy downpours. Meanwhile, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) stated that the drought situation continues to worsen despite recent rainfall.
The National Drought Group, which includes the Met Office, government representatives, regulators, water supply companies, farmers, Canal & River Trust, fishermen, and nature conservation experts, has moved to weekly meetings as part of the drought response, a Defra representative reported on Thursday.
Many areas of the country are facing water shortages as reservoir levels have dropped to 62.6%, which is 16.3% below the expected level for this time of year, according to Defra.
Last week, a £65 million support package was also announced to support farmers. According to Defra, they reported the earliest harvest start in 20 years, and yields have been affected by heat stress and dry weather.
Environment Agency Executive Director Philip Duffy, who heads the National Drought Group, said the current rainfall is desperately needed by farmers and wildlife but is not enough to change the overall drought picture.
“It is entirely possible to have drought and flooding at the same time when heavy rain falls on compacted ground. We are monitoring the flood risks while working with industry, agriculture, and the government on the drought response,” Duffy said.
He also called for water conservation, noting that every saved drop helps maintain local rivers, lakes, and farm businesses.
The Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales have also approached the governments of England and Wales with a request to introduce a drought order for the River Severn. They warn about the impact of current conditions on the river’s ecosystem and farm businesses in adjacent areas.
If the request is approved, companies Severn Trent Water, South Staffordshire Water, Bristol Water, and Hafren Dyfrdwy will have to reduce the amount of water they take from the river by 5%. The companies stated that this will not affect water supply.
Dr. Katie Facer-Childs, Senior Hydrologist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, noted that after an exceptionally hot and dry summer, it will take months for river flows and reservoir levels to return to normal.
“A little rain will not stop the drought. Autumn and winter are the critical periods for replenishing our water resources. If this autumn is wetter than usual, river flows may recover by December. However, current forecasts suggest this is unlikely, so river levels will generally remain low into the new year, especially in the southeast,” she said.
According to Facer-Childs, a dry winter could make parts of the UK vulnerable to drought again next year.
