The El Niño weather phenomenon, which began forming in the Pacific Ocean in June, continues to strengthen and is likely to become one of the most powerful in the last 75 years, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.
Sea surface temperatures of 1 degree Celsius or more, a defining characteristic of this phenomenon, have spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is an 81 percent chance that El Niño will become very strong and rank among “the largest events in historical records dating back to 1950“, the agency stated in its monthly forecast.
“Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to typical consequences everywhere, but stronger events can significantly increase the likelihood of predicted outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center noted. El Niño “will continue to strengthen through the end of the year,” with a 97 percent chance that it will persist until the beginning of spring 2027.
Global consequences of El Niño
Traders, markets, and governments are closely monitoring El Niño as it offers a seasonal outlook for extreme weather events that can lead to floods, droughts, cooling, and shifts in hurricane and typhoon activity across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean, which hinders the development of tropical storms and hurricanes during the six-month season that began on June 1. In other regions, it typically brings cooler and wetter winters to the southern United States while raising the risk of droughts and wildfires in Australia.
Reduction in storm forecasts
AccuWeather, a commercial forecaster, on July 7 revised its forecast for the number of named storms in the Atlantic down to 8–14, compared to the 11–16 predicted in March. According to the statement, the 30-year average for the Atlantic is 14 named storms, which are designated after reaching tropical storm strength.
There is only a 3 percent chance that the Pacific Ocean will return to normal conditions by early spring, and no possibility of La Niña, a phenomenon characterized by cooler ocean temperatures.
Source: The Straits Times
