European Union officials hope that a referendum in Iceland on resuming membership talks will help bolster support for further EU expansion and the accession of other, less wealthy states, diplomats told Reuters ahead of the public vote this month.
Iceland, a member of NATO, already has access to the EU’s single market through the European Economic Area. On August 29, the country will vote on whether to resume negotiations. The referendum comes as Europe faces crucial decisions on enlargement: Montenegro hopes to join the EU in 2028, while candidate countries Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova seek to make progress in their membership applications.
The referendum in Iceland is not a vote on membership itself, and any deal would require a second referendum. Supporters of membership argue that it could help the island address high living costs, counterbalance larger trading partners, and navigate changes in the geopolitical situation in the Arctic, including statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Greenland.
A positive outcome is not guaranteed. A Gallup poll this month showed voters evenly split on resuming negotiations: 46% said they would vote “yes,” and 46% said “no,” while 8% were undecided. Meanwhile, polls suggest that a majority oppose actual accession to the bloc.
Boosting the EU’s appeal
EU diplomats note that resuming talks with a wealthy country that would be easy to integrate—though its population is only about 400,000—could improve perceptions of further enlargement among European citizens, who are wary of accepting new members.
A positive vote in Iceland “would show the EU’s appeal in general and thus strengthen confidence in the bloc’s further expansion,” said a senior EU diplomat, adding that it “would make it easier for skeptical countries to support Montenegro’s accession.” Montenegro also has a small population but a significantly lower GDP per capita.
If Iceland joins the bloc, it would have a “positive impact on enlargement as a political tool,” said a second EU diplomat. “There is hesitation regarding the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine, but regarding Iceland, I see only positive aspects… it has a modern economy, it is dynamic and small,” he added.
Officials believe that the simultaneous advancement of Iceland and Montenegro’s candidacies could help overcome potential obstacles in EU member states, where some voters fear the possible impact of the bloc’s expansion on their economies. Steven Blockmans, deputy director of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, noted that “the simultaneous advancement of Iceland and Montenegro would likely be more successful—at least for now—than advancing Montenegro alone.” A 2025 Eurobarometer poll showed that 56% of EU citizens support further enlargement, but the level of support varies among bloc countries.
Changes in geopolitics and negotiations
Reykjavik abandoned previous negotiations in 2013 when a Eurosceptic government came to power. However, Russia’s war against Ukraine and Trump’s statements about Greenland have drawn attention to Iceland’s geostrategic position.
“The erosion of international law and the international rules-based system is a concern for us. Security and defense issues are also—no one talked about this in 2009 or 2013,” said a source familiar with Iceland’s position. EU officials have tried not to interfere in Iceland’s internal debates. But if Icelanders vote to resume negotiations, officials expect the country to make rapid progress.
“This reflects the growing appeal of the EU in a rapidly changing world,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told Reuters in response to a question about the significance of the referendum in Iceland. “We see that practically all European countries aspire to join or have closer association with the EU. And this will undoubtedly give momentum to the EU’s desire to accept new members.”
If the “yes” vote wins, Kos expects accession negotiations to take one to two years, with membership timelines depending on a second referendum in Iceland and ratification of the agreement by all 27 EU members. Officials note that fishing—one of the pillars of Iceland’s economy and national identity—will be the most difficult point in the negotiations if they resume.
“The EU must ask itself whether it wants fishing to be the issue that derails Iceland’s potential accession, even though it has very little economic significance for the EU compared to the geopolitical importance of acceding a country like Iceland?” said a source familiar with Iceland’s position. Brussels has signaled openness to compromise, and Kos stated: “Iceland’s unique characteristics regarding fishing and agriculture are well known. I am confident that, together with the EU member states, we will find creative solutions that take into account the sensitive issues of both Iceland and our member states.”
Source: The Straits Times
