The separatist party leading in polls ahead of October elections in Quebec has announced it will hold a referendum on secession from Canada only after Donald Trump leaves the White House. Leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ) Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon stated in a social media post that “a decisive issue such as Quebec’s political future requires conditions for informed and calm debate”. He added that “it should not be influenced by the turbulence of American politics, nor by the sharp statements of an unpredictable president, nor by fear campaigns”.
This means that a PQ government will not put the independence question to a vote before January 20, 2029, when Trump’s term ends. However, this will not prevent the party from pursuing separatist policies until then. The party, founded in 1968, is preparing for its third attempt to achieve independence.
Support for sovereignty and election ratings
Opponents, as well as many voters of the Parti Québécois, argue that holding a referendum amid threats from the U.S. president against Canada is doomed to fail. Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and repeatedly stated that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.
In November 2024, support for sovereignty in French-speaking Quebec was at 40%, one of the highest levels in the past 15 years, driven by dissatisfaction with the federal system. However, according to polling firm Leger Marketing, support began to decline after Trump’s election and is now nearly 10 percentage points lower.
According to the latest Leger Marketing poll, the Parti Québécois leads with 30% voter support. Due to the province’s electoral system, the party can still win a majority in the National Assembly. It is followed by the Quebec Liberal Party with 24%, and the ruling party — Coalition Avenir Québec — has 20%.
“I have always stated clearly and consistently that one day Quebecers will decide their own destiny, and that day is approaching,” said Plamondon. “I believe that independence is the only way for Quebec to fully realize its potential and avoid the cultural, linguistic, and financial decline that is already happening if we remain part of Canada.”
Source: Bloomberg
