Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to consolidate Israel’s fractured right-wing parties before a Tuesday deadline, aiming to avoid an election defeat predicted by recent polls. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking a record seventh term in the October 27 election. He faces intense political pressure following the Hamas-led attack on Israel in 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon. For months, polls have suggested his nationalist-religious coalition could face defeat.
The Prime Minister is urging allies to merge candidate lists to improve their chances of winning seats in the Knesset, Israel’s 120-seat parliament. Parties must clear a 3.25% electoral threshold—roughly equivalent to four seats—meaning smaller political factions risk wasting votes if they fail to secure a mandate. “When we unite, we win. When we split, we lose,” Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with Channel 14 on August 30.
Challenges in consolidating the right
Polls suggest the Likud party could lose a third of its parliamentary representation, though it would likely remain the largest party with 20 to 23 seats. To retain power, Netanyahu will likely need the support of coalition allies, including the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism parties.
The Religious Zionism party, led by Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, is polling between zero and six seats, down from its current seven. On September 1, it merged its list with the small Zehut party, led by former Likud member and far-right activist Moshe Feiglin. According to two political sources, the merger was supported and facilitated by Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir has rejected Netanyahu’s call to merge his Otzma Yehudit party with Religious Zionism, as was done in previous elections at the Prime Minister’s insistence. Ben-Gvir believes the parties will be stronger if they run separately.
Moshe Feiglin’s views on Palestinians align with those of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who have called for the annexation of the occupied West Bank and the depopulation of Gaza. Their statements have drawn sharp international criticism.
A further challenge for Netanyahu is political newcomer Ofer Winter, a right-wing former brigadier general whose views largely mirror those of Smotrich. He has rejected calls to merge, stating he will not run alongside those who may be responsible for the security failure that allowed the 2023 Hamas attack.
Winter is framing the election as an opportunity for a protest vote and claims he can attract right-wing voters seeking change. Recent polls give his party between zero and four seats. Netanyahu has warned that Winter’s independent run creates a risk of “wasting” critical right-wing votes if his party fails to clear the electoral threshold.
A crisis of confidence and political rivalry
In the previous 2022 election, the parliamentary system secured a decisive victory for Netanyahu, as a fractured center-left camp lost to a united right-wing alliance. Now, however, the most influential Israeli politician of his generation finds himself in a much weaker position.
His “hawkish” image was shattered by the security failure during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Critics are outraged by his refusal to accept responsibility, and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon have yielded military gains without delivering lasting victories.
“He has never faced anything like this. All of Israel is feeling an historic crisis, and his name is inextricably linked to it. And he knows it,” said Amotz Asa-El, a political analyst at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.
At the same time, heavy military casualties and concessions to ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies, who seek to exempt many of their members from mandatory military service, have further alienated Netanyahu’s traditional supporters.
The Prime Minister’s strongest rival is currently former Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Gadi Eizenkot, who lost his son in Gaza. His Yashar party has seen steady growth in the polls for months, drawing even with Likud and occasionally surpassing it, though Eizenkot’s path to power remains unclear.
Netanyahu’s age is also a factor, notes Amotz Asa-El. “When he first ran in 1996, he was the Israeli Kennedy. Now he is running as the Israeli Biden.”
Source: The Straits Times
