Presidential candidate from the Avante party Augusto Cury received 11% of voter support in the first round, according to a BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (31). The writer and psychiatrist improved his result by nine percentage points compared to the previous poll, in which he had 2%.
The institute analyzed two first-round scenarios — one including the candidacy of influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and one without him. Both scenarios were presented in both the previous poll, released last Monday (24), and the new one. Cury achieved the same result in both versions — 2% last week and 11% this week.
Candidate ratings in different scenarios
In the scenario including Marçal, who has 3% support, President Lula (PT) polls at 37%, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) has 31%. In the previous poll, they had 40% and 34% support, respectively. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the former governor of Goiás, has 6% compared to 5% a week earlier. Renan Santos (Missão) maintains 3% support, while Romeu Zema (Novo), the former governor of Minas Gerais, has 2%. Samara Martins (UP) and Wilson Grassi (Democrata) each have 1%. Blank and invalid ballots account for 3%, and 2% of respondents were undecided or did not answer. Candidates Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO), Hertz Dias (PSTU), Edmilson Costa (PCB), and Clariana Barão (DC) received no percentage points.
In the scenario without Marçal, Lula polls at 39%, and Flavio Bolsonaro at 33%. In the previous poll, they had 41% and 37%, respectively. Caiado maintains 5% support, while Renan Santos has 3%. Support for Zema dropped by two percentage points and now stands at 1% — the same as Samara Martins. Blank and invalid ballots account for 3%, and 3% of respondents were undecided or did not answer. In this scenario, Rui Costa Pimenta, Hertz Dias, Edmilson Costa, Clariana Barão, and Wilson Grassi received no percentage points.
Second-round results and poll methodology
At last week’s levels, Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie in the second round — 46% and 45% support, respectively. A statistical tie is also recorded in a matchup between the president (45%) and Caiado (44%). Lula polls at 46% against Zema (41%) and 47% against Renan Santos (38%).
Nexus conducted a telephone survey of 2,005 people aged 16 and older nationwide from Friday (28) to Sunday (30). The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a confidence level of 95%. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-08900/2026.
Source: Folha de S.Paulo
