Russia is systematically striking Ukraine’s civilian logistics, which has already led to empty shelves in Kyiv’s supermarkets — for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale war. This is reported by The Economist, emphasizing that the reason is the Kremlin’s new tactic: hunting civilian cargo ships in the Black Sea.
According to estimates by Dmitry Krymsky, co-founder of the Goodwine network, these strikes have caused approximately $500 million in damages to Ukrainian businesses in just three weeks. In particular, on July 19, a Russian ballistic missile hit a warehouse supplying goods to a Goodwine store. Two weeks later, strikes on two logistics centers of the Silpo network killed six employees. Nova Poshta, a private postal service used by most Ukrainians, is also regularly shelled, the publication notes.
Russia’s new tactics and the depletion of Ukrainian air defense
According to available data, Moscow has sharply increased the production of ballistic missiles, while Ukraine’s air defense reserves are depleting, allowing only certain priority objects to be covered. In July, Russia launched a record 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles, mostly at the Kyiv region. These strikes were a response to successful Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian defense plants, oil refineries, Azov Sea ports, and warehouses of the online giant Wildberries, which supplies equipment to the occupiers.
The strikes also damage Russia’s economy: refineries have lost more than 30% of their capacity, and fuel coupons, which at their peak operated in 80 regions, are still used in 18. Analysts estimate Wildberries’ losses at $2–4 billion — the company has lost almost a third of its facilities. At the same time, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet, unavailable to Russian military, gives Ukraine an advantage in using medium-range drones over occupied territories.
Russian troops in the east are losing more than 1,000 soldiers a day and are barely replenishing losses, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting local counterattacks. Because of this, the confrontation is increasingly moving into the airspace. At the same time, experts point to a significant difference in the assessment of enemy losses: the Ukrainian General Staff estimates the losses of the Russian oil refining industry at $13.5 billion since August 2025, but analyst Serhiy Vakulenko from the Carnegie Foundation considers these losses much smaller. “The strikes cause damage, but not on the scale and within the timeframes that Ukraine claims,” the expert noted.
Odesa ports and the threat to the harvest
Pressure is now being felt from both sides, but Ukraine has proven more vulnerable. The Odesa ports, the economic artery of the country, were the first to feel the threat. The situation worsened in mid-July when Russia began hunting ships directly. On July 19, cruise missiles hit a Turkish cargo ship near Chornomorsk and sank it, killing ten people. Since then, every ship entering or leaving Odesa has been attacked — the ports, according to the publication, are effectively not functioning as a commercial route.
“One ship with a capacity of 100,000 tons is equivalent to 5,000 trucks, 5,000 drivers, and 5,000 border procedures,” emphasized Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrport association. According to him, the situation is worse than in 2022, when Danube ports compensated for some of the losses. Now, due to low water levels and shelling, this route is also complicated.
According to Alex Lissitsa, president of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, if the harvest of 50 million tons cannot be sold, farmers may refuse autumn sowing altogether. This could bring the industry’s losses to $10–12 billion, or 5% of official GDP, which would impact both food security and Ukraine’s positions in African and Middle Eastern markets. One former official compared the situation to a football match: “It’s like we played open football with Brazilians. We scored three goals and celebrated, but they scored thirteen.”
The publication concludes that this year Ukraine managed to turn the tide of hostilities, but the pressure, which was supposed to increase closer to winter, intensified earlier. Without stable supplies of interceptor missiles, the country’s economy and military prospects could suffer serious losses, so Western partners will have to increase support. In Kyiv, they are also discussing the worst-case scenario — that strikes on energy, water supply, and sewage could provoke mass emigration. “Will they go for it? Quite possibly,” says a Ukrainian source in the security sector.
Earlier, UNIAN reported that strikes on Wildberries also have negative consequences for Ukraine. As noted by military expert and former SBU employee Ivan Stupak, according to various data, 27% of the marketplace’s capacity has already been destroyed, and the strikes themselves have been ongoing since July 18, 2026. According to him, this could push some of the approximately half a million sellers who will lose their jobs to seek income precisely in the ranks of the Russian army — one of the few places in Russia where they pay well now.
