By 2040, Russia could hold direct or indirect control over one‑third of the world’s uranium production. According to the Financial Times, this is the conclusion reached by analysts at the British Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA).
If only uranium mined within Russia is considered, its share of the global market in 2024 was just about 5%. However, Uranium One, a company owned by Rosatom, mines uranium in Kazakhstan, Tanzania and Namibia, and recently secured a deal in Niger as well.
When accounting for these foreign assets, CSA estimates that Russia controlled nearly a quarter of global uranium production capacity in 2024. Analysts project this figure could rise to 36% by 2040.
Risks of energy dependence
CSA analyst Gareth Haywood said: “By 2040, we may be as dependent on uranium mined in Russia as we were on Russian oil and gas in 2022.”
In recent years, Western nations have reduced investment in uranium mining due to low global prices and weak demand. However, the CSA believes global demand for uranium is likely to increase in the coming years.
Industry representatives are seeking government guarantees before committing to long‑term investments in expanding production. Specifically, Urenco, which is majority‑owned by the governments of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, stated that the business would like to receive a “clear signal” from the government that nuclear energy will remain a long‑term part of its energy‑security strategy.
Russia was the largest supplier of uranium for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. In May 2024, U.S. authorities banned the import of Russian uranium, though exemptions allow imports to continue until 2028. U.S. sanctions do not apply to uranium mined by Uranium One outside of Russia. Meanwhile, the European Union has not banned the import of Russian uranium.
Source: Meduza
