Ukraine is launching a 40-day operation aimed at “pressuring Russia to end the war.” This follows several weeks of strikes on energy and military facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he approved the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) plan for this operation. Zelensky’s statement came after his meeting with the head of the SBU, Major General Yevhen Khmara, who reported on the “plan for long-range strikes, medium-range strikes, and the results achieved by the SBU,” as Zelensky shared on the social media platform X. “For several months in a row, the SBU has demonstrated the highest efficiency in protecting Ukraine’s positions on the front thanks to the use of various types of drones,” Zelensky said on Thursday evening. Kyiv uses the term “strikes” to describe its medium- and long-range drone attacks on Russian territory and areas occupied by Moscow.
Zelensky also noted the recent successes of the SBU in “hitting the personnel and equipment of the occupation forces.” Although Ukraine’s military planning remains strictly confidential, Zelensky did not provide additional details about the operation. The mention of medium- and long-range “strikes” is also seen as a hint at future actions. Over the past few weeks, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of strikes on Russian logistics, energy infrastructure, and the sense of “deep rear security,” attacking Crimea and Moscow.
Priority targets
Crimea and Moscow are likely to remain priority targets. Consecutive drone strikes on the Russian capital—the most protected part of the country—have led to the shutdown of the Moscow Oil Refinery, exacerbating the fuel crisis across the country and bringing the war to the Russian population, which has lived in relative peace for over four years of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Immediately after the announcement on Thursday evening, authorities in Moscow reported dozens of drones launched by Kyiv toward the Russian capital. Over the past few days, Ukrainian military intelligence has also reported that Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has forced Russia to redeploy air defense systems to protect priority targets: Moscow and the illegally built Kerch Bridge. This has weakened air defense coverage in other Russian regions and occupied territories. “In practice, these are the two areas that the Russians have been ordered to protect at the expense of weakening other sectors of their territory and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
Crimea under siege
Kyiv stated that “hell is beginning for Russian troops in Crimea.” Ukraine’s medium-range strike campaign, which typically includes attacks within 20–200 km, has already disrupted logistics in Russian-occupied Crimea, cutting off Moscow’s supply routes for its troops in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Kyiv plans to completely isolate the peninsula, cutting it off from Moscow while simultaneously destroying critical infrastructure, which will eventually lead to the siege of Russian troops there. “Hell is beginning,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on June 17. “Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated.” Kyiv’s campaign is already in full force on the annexed peninsula. Crimea is experiencing a serious fuel shortage and power outages, and many Russian tourists are panicking and returning home.
Zelensky also issued another warning to Belarus regarding the “potential expansion of aggression” by Minsk against Ukraine. He noted that the deployment of military infrastructure along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is almost complete. “The construction of road infrastructure and storage bases for ammunition and fuel is nearing completion,” Zelensky said after a briefing by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. “These facilities have no other purpose but military.” On Monday, the Belarusian opposition in exile handed Kyiv a list of warning signs that Minsk is soon planning to join Russia’s war against Ukraine, outlining how Alexander Lukashenko is shifting his policy to a war footing. The latest warning from Zelensky came a day after Lukashenko apparently accepted Kyiv’s ultimatum to remove communication equipment in Belarus that, according to Ukraine, helped support Russian drone strikes. Kyiv warned that Belarus would face unspecified actions from Ukraine if the equipment was not removed. Over the past few months, Ukraine has been sounding the alarm that Moscow, Minsk’s closest ally, may try to draw Belarus deeper into its confrontation with Kyiv in an attempt to support the Kremlin’s military efforts. Belarus served as a staging ground for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and has since deepened its military alliance with Moscow.
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