The German anti‑immigration party has strengthened its leading positions in the eastern federal state less than two weeks before the elections, which could lead to the formation of the country’s first government headed by the far‑right, although it does not yet have an absolute majority.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) had 42% support in the federal state of Saxony‑Anhalt on the eve of the September 6 elections, increasing this figure by one percentage point compared with the July poll. The ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost 2 percentage points, dropping to 22%, according to an Infratest Dimap poll commissioned by ARD. The anti‑capitalist Left Party, the centre‑left Social Democrats (SPD), and the Greens would each have enough support to enter the state parliament, gaining 11%, 8% and 6% respectively.
Support for AfD and challenges for government formation
A convincing victory for the AfD, which calls for a halt to migration and large‑scale deportations, would break with the country’s post‑war political order and would deal a particular blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, which is trying to gain public support. Because several parties fail to clear the 5% threshold for entry into the Saxony‑Anhalt state parliament, the AfD could secure a majority of seats with less than 50% of the vote.
If the AfD does not obtain an absolute majority, it may seek the backing of other parties, all of which have previously refused to cooperate with this far‑right party. Should the AfD be unable to form a government, assembling a coalition could become chaotic. The conservative CDU, which has governed the state of 2.1 million people since 2002, would then have to enlist the support of the Left Party—also previously ruled out—as well as the SPD and the Greens.
The poll, however, gave a favourable signal to the ruling party. When asked whom voters would prefer as head of the state government if the position were elected by direct vote, 42% would support state premier Sven Schulze of the CDU, while 39% would choose the AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund. The minister‑president is elected by the state parliament. The Infratest poll was conducted on August 24‑25 among 1,511 voters.
AfD’s political plans and security services’ concerns
The AfD is leveraging public discontent and running a campaign promising to change the political order. The party is promoting plans to create special groups for deportations, reform the education system to eliminate “leftist indoctrination”, and purge civil servants who do not align with the party line. German security services have raised the alarm, calling for the protection of confidential information if the state’s Interior Ministry falls under far‑right control.
Merz is trying to curb the rise of the far‑right. Last month, he presented a sweeping reform agenda and called for support for Germany’s political centre, warning that the growth of marginal parties threatens to plunge the country “into the abyss.” “The political centre is active, working, and fulfilling its constitutional mandate,” Merz told lawmakers on July 9. However, after a failed cabinet reshuffle in the following weeks, his standing among the public and within the party further weakened.
After the elections in Saxony‑Anhalt, there will be two more election campaigns in eastern Germany: in the federal state of Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania on the Baltic coast and in Berlin. The AfD is also leading in Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania, although the ruling SPD in that state appears to have stronger prospects for forming a new government. In the German capital, the Left Party has led in some polls. The party, which partially originates from the former ruling communist party of East Germany, could form a majority together with the SPD and the Greens.
Source: Bloomberg
