Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Lula (PT) remain in a technical tie for the second round of Brazil’s presidential election. According to a BTG/Nexus poll released on Tuesday, September 8, 46% of voters intend to support Bolsonaro, while 45% favor Lula. Last week, Lula held 46% to his main opponent’s 45%.
The study modeled a second-round scenario between Lula and author Augusto Cury (Avante) for the first time. In this matchup, Cury receives 45%, while the incumbent president receives 43%. In a contest against former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Lula polls at 46% against 43%. If facing former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (Novo), the president receives 47% against 40%, and against Renan Santos (Missão) 47% against 39%.
First-round results
Researchers surveyed 2,002 voters aged 16 and older nationwide via telephone. The poll was conducted from Friday, September 4, to Sunday, September 7. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The study is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court of Brazil) under number BR-06790/2026.
This is the institute’s third poll examining two first-round scenarios—one including Pablo Marçal and one without him. His case will be reviewed by the TSE, as Marçal is ineligible to run until 2032. However, he secured a court order from the São Paulo Electoral Court allowing him to join the PRTB and register his presidential candidacy.
In the scenario including Marçal, who has the support of 3% of voters, Lula receives 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34%. Augusto Cury receives 9%, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos receive 4% each, Romeu Zema receives 2%, and Samara Martins (UP) receives 1%. Additionally, 3% of respondents would cast a blank or spoiled ballot, and 1% remain undecided or did not respond.
Without Marçal, Lula also receives 39%, while Flávio Bolsonaro receives 35%. Cury polls at 9%, Caiado and Renan Santos at 4% each, while Zema, Samara Martins, and Rui Costa Pimenta each receive 1%. Blank and spoiled ballots account for 3%, with 2% undecided or not responding.
Source: Folha de S.Paulo
